What Led to the Pahalgam Terror Attack? Insights from Intelligence Reports

Intelligence Warnings Preceding the Attack

In the days leading up to the tragic terror incident in Pahalgam, intelligence agencies had raised alarms about potential threats to tourists, particularly those residing in hotels near Srinagar, nestled in the Zabarwan mountain range, as reported by knowledgeable officials on Saturday.

This warning led to an increased security presence in the region, with senior police officials stationed in Srinagar to supervise extensive search operations around areas like Dachigam and Nishat.

These locations had previously drawn attention following a terrorist attack at a construction site in Gangangir, Sonamarg, last October, which resulted in the deaths of seven individuals, including a doctor. This site is situated across the Zabarwan range, overlooking Srinagar.

Despite a two-week-long operation involving thorough searches on the outskirts of Srinagar based on the intelligence gathered, security forces were unable to achieve any significant results, leading to the operation's conclusion on April 22, the same day terrorists struck tourists in Pahalgam, resulting in 26 fatalities.

There were indications that the terrorists aimed to execute their plans during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit last month, which was intended to inaugurate the first train service from Katra to Srinagar.

Officials noted that Pakistan was likely displeased with the upcoming railway connection designed to link the Kashmir Valley with the rest of India.

However, the Prime Minister's visit, initially set for April 19, was postponed due to unfavorable weather forecasts predicting strong winds in the Katra region.

Officials clarified that the weather was the sole reason for the delay, with new inauguration dates expected to be announced shortly.

State and non-state actors across the border are believed to be opposed to the powerful imagery of the train's inauguration receiving international attention, potentially motivating them to orchestrate such heinous acts to overshadow the event.

Regarding the Pahalgam attack, officials revealed that two local terrorists had blended in with the tourists, and once the shooting began, they directed the tourists to a food court complex, where two additional terrorists, reportedly from Pakistan, opened fire, resulting in 26 deaths.

The objective of this attack appears to be instilling fear among the populace and possibly inciting retaliatory actions against Kashmiris in other parts of the country, according to sources.

In response, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah's swift actions, including discussions with senior officials in New Delhi, led to directives being issued to ensure the safety of Kashmiri locals in various states.

Officials have also expressed concern over a troubling trend in the nature of terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir, highlighted by the discovery of advanced weaponry such as M-series rifles, sniper rifles, and armor-piercing ammunition at encounter sites, suspected to be remnants from NATO forces in Afghanistan.

Authorities cautioned against relying solely on tourist numbers in Jammu and Kashmir as an indicator of peace, referencing former Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad's past claims linking tourist arrivals to normalcy.

Shortly after such statements, in May 2006, a terrorist attack on a tourist bus from Gujarat in Srinagar resulted in four deaths and six injuries.

Officials emphasized that in a conflict zone, tourism should primarily be regarded as an economic activity rather than a measure of normalcy.

Regarding the status of Baisaran, officials clarified that the area is accessible year-round, except during the Amarnath Yatra or heavy snowfall periods.

The Jammu and Kashmir administration had previously issued a tender for Baisaran, awarded to a South Kashmir individual last August for three years at a cost of Rs 3 crore. The entire meadow has since been fenced, and a zipline facility has been established.

On the recent practice of demolishing houses during counter-terrorism operations, officials stated that this practice has been suspended at the request of the Jammu and Kashmir elected government.

New Delhi has been advised to pay attention to the spontaneous protests that erupted across the Kashmir Valley following the Pahalgam killings on April 22, reminiscent of public movements seen during the Nirbhaya case in New Delhi.