Early Arrival of Southwest Monsoon Marks Significant Weather Change in India

Southwest Monsoon Arrives in Kerala
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that the southwest monsoon reached Kerala on Saturday, May 24, marking the earliest arrival on the Indian mainland since 2009. Typically, the monsoon makes its entrance in Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8. It begins to retreat from northwest India around September 17 and is completely withdrawn by October 15. Historical data from the IMD indicates that last year, the monsoon arrived in the southern state on May 30; in 2023, it was on June 8; in 2022, it was May 29; in 2021, June 3; in 2020, June 1; in 2019, June 8; and in 2018, May 29.
Significance of the Early Monsoon
The southwest monsoon, responsible for over 75% of India's annual rainfall, has made its debut on the Kerala coast, the earliest in the last 16 years. The last time it arrived this early was in 2009, when it reached the Indian coast on May 23.
Heavy Rainfall Forecast
Since last week, heavy rainfall has been reported across Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and most parts of Karnataka. According to the weather department, widespread rain is expected to continue in Kerala-Mahe and Karnataka until May 27-29. Additionally, heavy rainfall is anticipated in Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Rayalaseema over the next five days, with particularly intense rain predicted on May 25 and 26.
Understanding Monsoon Variability
Meteorologists note that there is no direct correlation between the start date of the monsoon and the total rainfall across the country. An early or late monsoon in Kerala does not necessarily indicate similar patterns for other regions. The variability is largely influenced by global, regional, and local factors.
Monsoon Predictions for 2025
In April, the IMD projected above-normal cumulative rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season, dismissing the likelihood of El Niño conditions, which are typically associated with below-normal rainfall in the Indian subcontinent.
Weekend Rain Forecast for Delhi
According to the IMD, the minimum temperature in the national capital was recorded at 28.4 degrees Celsius, which is 1.7 degrees below the seasonal average. Rain and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday and Sunday, with maximum temperatures around 37 degrees Celsius. Relative humidity was noted at 62% as of 8:30 AM on Saturday.
Air Quality Update
Data from the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) indicated that the air quality at 9 AM was classified as 'moderate,' with an Air Quality Index (AQI) of 120. According to CPCB standards, an AQI of 0-50 is considered 'good,' 51-100 'satisfactory,' 101-200 'moderate,' 201-300 'poor,' 301-400 'very poor,' and 401-500 'severe.'