India's Population Set to Reach 1.46 Billion by 2025, UN Report Reveals
A new UN report forecasts that India's population will hit 1.46 billion by 2025, making it the world's most populous nation. The report highlights a decline in fertility rates, now at 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level. It emphasizes the need for improved reproductive health and informed decision-making. Despite a decrease in birth rates, India's youth population remains significant, with 68% of the population in the working age group. The report also discusses the challenges women face in exercising reproductive rights, indicating a long journey ahead for achieving full autonomy in family planning. This demographic shift presents both opportunities and challenges for India's future.
| Jun 11, 2025, 17:25 IST
UN Demographic Report Highlights India's Population Growth
A recent demographic report from the United Nations indicates that India's population is projected to reach 1.46 billion by 2025, making it the most populous country in the world. This significant milestone underscores India's demographic prominence on the global stage.
The report also reveals that the country's fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level. The UNFPA's 2025 State of World Population Report, titled 'The Real Fertility Crisis,' addresses the decline in reproductive capacity, moving beyond mere panic to highlight unmet reproductive goals. It points out that millions are unable to achieve their actual reproductive aspirations.
According to the report, the real crisis lies not in underpopulation or overpopulation but in enhancing reproductive capacity. This means individuals should have 150% autonomy and informed decision-making power regarding sex, contraception, and family planning. The report also outlines significant changes in population structure, fertility rates, and life expectancy, indicating a major demographic shift.
Findings show that India's total fertility rate has dropped to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1. This suggests that, on average, Indian women are having fewer children than necessary to maintain the population size across generations, without considering migration. Despite the declining birth rate, India's youth population remains substantial, with 24% aged 0-14, 17% aged 10-19, and 26% aged 10-24.
Currently, 68% of the population is of working age (15-64), which, with adequate employment opportunities and policy support, could yield a significant demographic dividend. The elderly population (65 years and older) stands at 7%, a figure expected to rise in the coming decades as life expectancy improves. By 2025, life expectancy at birth is projected to be 71 years for men and 74 years for women.
According to UN estimates, India's population currently stands at 1,463.9 million. The report states that India is now the world's most populous nation, with a population nearing 1.5 billion, expected to rise to approximately 1.7 billion before it begins to decline in about 40 years. These figures reflect the stories of countless couples who have made decisions about starting or expanding their families, as well as the experiences of women with limited choices regarding pregnancy.
In 1960, when India's population was around 436 million, the average woman had about six children. At that time, women had significantly less control over their bodies and lives compared to today. The report notes that fewer than one in four women used any form of contraception, and less than half attended primary school (World Bank data, 2020). However, over the decades, educational achievements have increased, access to reproductive healthcare has improved, and more women have gained a voice in decisions affecting their lives.
Today, the average woman in India has about two children. While women now enjoy more rights and options than their mothers or grandmothers, there remains a long journey ahead before they can fully exercise their reproductive choices, including the number of children they wish to have and when.
The UN report categorizes India among middle-income countries undergoing rapid demographic changes, with a projected doubling of the population expected in 79 years. UNFPA India representative Andrea M. Wojnar stated, 'India has made significant progress in reducing fertility rates, from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to about two today, thanks to better education and access to reproductive health services.'
Wojnar added, 'This has led to a substantial decrease in maternal mortality rates, meaning millions of mothers are alive today, nurturing children and building communities. However, deep inequalities persist across states, castes, and income groups.' She emphasized that true demographic dividends occur when everyone has the freedom and means to choose informed reproductive options. India has a unique opportunity to demonstrate how reproductive rights and economic prosperity can advance together.'
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