ISL Semi-Finals: Bengaluru FC and Jamshedpur FC Hold Advantage Ahead of Second Legs

ISL Semi-Finals: A Critical Juncture

The Indian Super League (ISL) is currently at a crucial stage as the four semi-finalists gear up for the decisive second legs, according to the official ISL website.

Bengaluru FC travels to Goa with a commanding 2-0 lead, while Jamshedpur FC heads to Kolkata with a 2-1 advantage, aiming to eliminate the League Shield winners, Mohun Bagan Super Giant.

As the semi-final matchups are only halfway through, the outcome remains uncertain. However, a look back at historical trends can provide insights into the potential directions these ties may take.

The ISL has consistently employed a two-legged format for its semi-finals, resulting in thrilling moments over the years. From the nail-biting semi-final clash between Kerala Blasters FC and Chennaiyin FC in 2014, which required extra time to determine a winner, to the remarkable comeback by Mumbai City FC in the 2023-24 season, ISL semi-finals have always delivered excitement.

With both home teams winning their first legs, historical data sheds light on the performance of teams that enter the second leg with an advantage.

Out of 16 home-away semi-finals in ISL history (excluding the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons held in a bio bubble), teams that played the first leg at home have won six times, while ten victories have gone to teams playing away in the first leg.

This suggests that hosting the second leg offers a significant advantage, particularly for higher-ranked teams in the league stage, as the playoff structure is designed accordingly.

However, having a lead is even more beneficial, as evidenced by the fact that ten out of 20 semi-finals have been clinched by teams that triumphed in the first leg.

Only four times in ISL history have teams that lost the first leg managed to recover and reach the finals.

This statistic bodes well for Bengaluru FC and Jamshedpur FC, giving them a 71% probability of advancing based on historical performance.

When factoring in home advantage, the odds shift slightly. Home teams have won the first leg on nine occasions, with five of those teams progressing to win the semi-final tie.

Despite the home advantage for the away team in the first leg, the likelihood of teams winning the tie after securing a first-leg victory at home remains significant.

According to these metrics, Bengaluru FC and Jamshedpur FC have a 56% chance of reaching the finals.

In the past two seasons, all four semi-final ties have been won by the team playing the second leg at home. Notably, only one of those ties featured a home win in the first leg.

Last season, Mohun Bagan Super Giant lost to Odisha FC in the first leg but managed to turn the tables in the second leg in Kolkata. They will be looking for a similar turnaround when they face Jamshedpur FC on Monday.

On the other hand, FC Goa faces a tougher challenge, trailing by two goals. Historically, no team has ever overturned a deficit greater than one goal in ISL semi-finals. In the five instances where a team won the first leg by more than one goal, they successfully advanced to the finals each time.

While history may not favor the teams needing to overcome deficits in these semi-final ties, football has a way of rewriting narratives. Ultimately, victories are determined on the pitch, not merely on paper.