India's Monsoon Forecast: Early Arrival Expected in Kerala and Major Cities
Monsoon Predictions for India
In various regions of India, rainfall has commenced in April and May, leading to speculation about the arrival of the monsoon. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has clarified this uncertainty, announcing that the southwest monsoon is set to reach Kerala on May 27, which is five days earlier than its usual onset date of June 1. The arrival of the monsoon in Kerala is a significant weather indicator, marking the transition from the intense heat to the much-anticipated rainy season across the country. This early arrival could have a substantial impact on agriculture, allowing for timely sowing of Kharif crops, thus providing farmers with a valuable head start. The IMD emphasized that this forecast aids agricultural stakeholders in planning and preparing for the upcoming season.
Expected Monsoon Dates for Major Cities
The IMD has shared its timeline for the arrival of the southwest monsoon in several major Indian cities, offering residents clarity on when they can expect the first rains. According to the forecast, Mumbai and Kolkata are likely to see the monsoon between June 10 and June 15. Hyderabad is expected to experience the monsoon slightly earlier, between June 5 and June 10, while southern cities like Bengaluru and Chennai can anticipate the first rains from June 1 to June 5.
Monsoon Arrival in Delhi and Other Regions
As for the national capital, Delhi is projected to receive monsoon rains between June 25 and June 30, indicating a later seasonal shift compared to the southern and central parts of the country. In western India, Ahmedabad is expected to see monsoon rains between June 15 and June 20, while Jaipur is likely to experience rainfall around the same time as Delhi, between June 25 and June 30.
Monsoon's Early Start in Kerala
Typically, the monsoon arrives in Kerala around June 1, with a standard deviation of about seven days, and usually covers the entire country by July 8. Since 2005, the IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the onset of the monsoon in Kerala using an indigenous, advanced statistical model, which has a forecast error margin of ±4 days. Over the past two decades (2005-2024), the IMD's predictions have been largely accurate, with a notable exception in 2015 when the actual onset occurred on June 5, surpassing the estimated date of May 30.
Monsoon Developments in the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea
Additionally, the IMD has confirmed that the monsoon has already reached parts of the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, arriving at least a week earlier than usual. It is expected to advance into more regions of the country in the next three to four days. Notably, this year's onset in the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea marks the earliest recorded in the last seven years. According to the IMD's climatic data, the monsoon typically reaches the southern Andaman Sea and Port Blair in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands by May 21.
Potential Cyclonic Activity
The IMD has observed a cyclonic circulation in the upper atmosphere over the Andaman Sea, which may develop into a low-pressure system between May 16 and May 22. This system could intensify into a cyclone by May 23-28, potentially affecting coastal areas of Odisha and West Bengal, as well as Bangladesh. Concurrently, the southwest monsoon has progressed into parts of the southern Bay of Bengal, southern Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands, and northern Andaman Sea by May 13, 2025. This early onset is the quickest recorded in the past seven years. In low-lying areas, the formation of cyclonic activity could lead to coastal flooding, strong gusts, and heavy rainfall.
IMD's Latest Updates
In a press release, the IMD stated, "As of May 14, 2025, at 0300 UTC, a cyclonic circulation is observed over the southwest Bay of Bengal, adjacent to the Tamil Nadu coast, at an altitude of 1.5 km above sea level." The weather office also indicated that conditions are favorable for the southwest monsoon to advance over the southern Arabian Sea, Maldives, and parts of the Comorin region, as well as over the Bay of Bengal and the entire Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16 and 17.