How Trump's Unpredictable Policies Impact India-US Relations

Trump's Return and Its Implications

New Delhi: Upon his return for a second term, President Donald Trump has been establishing a reputation for unpredictability, frequently issuing Executive Directives that have faced legal challenges and stirred international criticism.

India maintains that its relationship with the United States is founded on a natural strategic alliance, emphasizing the need for both nations to unite against threats like faith-based terrorism and authoritarian regimes such as China. Any trade issues should ideally be resolved through dialogue.

As a significant global player, India must continuously assess how Trump's policies affect bilateral relations, while not being overly influenced by domestic or international criticism of his actions. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has largely embraced this perspective, recognizing the mutual benefits of US-India cooperation.

There is no inherent opposition to Trump's 'America First' doctrine, especially regarding its implications for diplomacy and trade, as well as the US's involvement in various military conflicts worldwide. Notably, Trump's readiness to face judicial scrutiny of his directives reflects democratic principles, alongside his willingness to adjust policies when necessary.

Trump's focus on boosting the US economy stems from his astute observation that Communist China has learned from the Soviet Union's collapse and is pursuing economic dominance, particularly as the US grapples with trade deficits.

To enhance federal efficiency, Trump has prioritized cost-effectiveness, implementing layoffs and cutting funding for non-essential projects while aiming to revive American manufacturing and job creation.

A new initiative, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, aims to streamline federal agencies, combat corruption, and reorganize government functions.

Efficiency and cost-effectiveness are interconnected, as reducing workforce numbers and optimizing operational steps are essential for timely task completion. Following Trump's directive for 'minimum government, maximum governance,' PM Modi has set similar goals for India. Musk's initiatives have led to significant layoffs and restructuring within federal agencies.

On March 20, Trump issued an order to dismantle the Department of Education, citing its inefficiency and perceived liberal bias.

Federal investigations were launched against Columbia, Harvard, and Princeton for allowing anti-Semitic activities on their campuses.

The Department of Health and Human Services (DHH) underwent reorganization, reducing its divisions from 28 to 15 and cutting its workforce by 25%, saving $1.8 billion annually.

A notable instance of bureaucratic corruption uncovered by DOGE revealed that 12.3 million individuals aged 120 or older remained on social security records, prompting their removal.

Additionally, the Food Safety and Inspection Services (FSIS) found that a New Jersey-based Brazilian company was selling uninspected frozen chicken products, leading to a recall due to potential health risks.

While Trump's policies are largely economically driven, they also reflect an ideological lean towards the far right.

In a controversial move, Trump declared a 'national emergency' to expel illegal migrants from the US, enabling military involvement at the southern border and increasing scrutiny of H1 visas, which raised concerns in India, where many seek higher education and employment opportunities.

During a press conference, Trump clarified that he supported hiring skilled engineers but opposed ordinary jobs being filled by cheaper foreign labor.

India has shown a willingness to address US concerns regarding illegal immigration, with PM Modi assuring Trump of India's cooperation in dismantling illegal migration networks.

Currently, India faces no significant visa issues with the US, aside from heightened applicant scrutiny, which is expected.

Trump was the first global leader to condemn the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22, but some concerns arose in India regarding the US's response to subsequent military actions taken by the Modi government against Pakistan.

Following a Cabinet Committee on Security meeting, PM Modi announced that Indian Defence Forces were authorized to strike terrorists and their supporters at their discretion.

The Indian Air Force conducted multiple strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan, maintaining an element of surprise. Named Operation Sindoor, this retaliation led to Pakistan's failed drone attacks, which were largely intercepted by Indian air defenses.

In a more aggressive response, India launched missile strikes that severely damaged key Pakistani airbases. The Pakistani military reached out to the Trump Administration, reminding them of the nuclear capabilities of both nations, prompting discussions of a ceasefire.

The ceasefire request from Pakistan's DGMO was accepted by India, with PM Modi outlining India's future stance in a national address on May 12.

In a significant declaration of India's National Security Policy, Modi stated that any future terrorist attacks from Pakistan would be treated as acts of war, emphasizing that India would not be deterred by nuclear threats and that discussions with Pakistan would focus solely on cross-border terrorism and the return of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

While Trump may have viewed Pakistan as a trading partner, he also recognized the importance of maintaining a strong India-US relationship.

Trump's tendency to exaggerate was evident when he claimed credit for preventing a 'war' between India and Pakistan and averting mass casualties, even offering to mediate on Kashmir. However, after India's strong opposition to third-party intervention, Trump quickly adjusted his stance, suggesting direct dialogue between the two nations.

Despite Trump's unpredictability and his tendency to boast, India can navigate its crucial relationship with the US effectively.

A key aspect of India's strategic diplomacy will be to highlight the collaboration between China and Pakistan, particularly in the context of the post-Pahalgam military confrontation.