Analyzing Player Performance in ISL: The Impact of Expected Goals
Understanding Football Performance Metrics
In New Delhi, June 17, football enthusiasts find that analyzing their team's performance is not just a hobby but an essential ritual. Each fan acts as an inner analyst, continuously searching for insights and trends that influence their views on the team's success, according to the official site of the Indian Super League (ISL).
The landscape of football has transformed significantly, along with the discussions surrounding it. Today's fans have access to a wealth of information that helps them interpret their team's performance more effectively.
The integration of data into football has elevated the analysis of performance, allowing fans to quantify the factors contributing to a team's success or struggles. Data has evolved from mere record-keeping to becoming a crucial tool for performance evaluation.
One popular metric in contemporary football is Expected Goals (xG), which assesses the quality of scoring opportunities. This metric eliminates the ambiguity of whether a chance is significant or challenging, providing a precise numerical value.
The Indian Super League (ISL) has embraced this data-driven approach, and fans are increasingly appreciating this modern analytical framework.
As part of this analysis, we examine players who excelled or fell short in terms of their xG statistics last season.
Top Performers Exceeding Expectations
Alaaeddine Ajaraie from NorthEast United FC has dominated the attacking statistics this season, particularly in terms of exceeding his xG. The Moroccan striker netted 23 goals in the ISL 2024-25, surpassing an xG of 16.81, resulting in an impressive overperformance of six goals, the highest in the league.
Brison Fernandes of FC Goa, who earned the Emerging Player of the Season award, scored seven goals from an xG of just 2.89, showcasing an overperformance of four goals. His ability to score from distance has been a key factor in his success.
Another notable mention is Ezequiel Vidal from Punjab FC, who mirrors Fernandes' profile. The Argentinian also scored seven goals, achieving an overperformance of nearly four goals from an xG of 3.14.
Defensively, Alberto Rodriguez stood out in ISL 2024-25, contributing significantly with five goals from an xG of only 1.29, marking an overperformance of almost four goals, which is invaluable for any team.
Sunil Chhetri remains a crucial figure in the league, scoring 14 goals last season, matching his best tally from seven years ago. His performance is even more impressive considering he achieved this from an xG of 10.45, resulting in an overperformance of 3.55 goals.
Players Underperforming Expectations
On the flip side, some forwards did not meet their expected performance levels. Mohammedan SC's Franca scored only once from an xG of 4.46, underperforming by 3.46 goals.
Cleiton Silva from East Bengal FC had a disappointing season compared to his previous performance, struggling to score from an xG of 2.9.
Alexis Gomez, another player from Mohammedan SC, also underperformed, netting just one goal from an xG of 3.64.
Liston Colaco from MBSG managed three goals but had an xG of 5.63, indicating he had opportunities to score more. Similarly, Vikram Partap Singh from Mumbai City FC only scored once from an xG of 2.9, falling short of his previous season's achievements.
As teams prepare for the summer transfer window, many are already making moves to enhance their squads. For those remaining with their current clubs, this break offers a chance to regroup and aim for improved performances in the upcoming season.