Global Temperature Surge: Are We Approaching a Climate Crisis?

WMO Report Highlights Alarming Temperature Trends

New Delhi: A recent report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates a 70% likelihood that the global average temperature from 2025 to 2029 will surpass pre-industrial levels by over 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The report further suggests an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will set a new record as the hottest year ever documented.

Notably, 2024 is projected to be the first year in which the global mean temperature exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius above the baseline of 1850-1900, a period before significant human-induced climate changes began.

The 1.5 degrees Celsius benchmark was established during the Paris climate conference in 2015, aiming to mitigate severe climate change effects.

A sustained breach of this threshold would indicate long-term warming over a span of 20 to 30 years.

Countries are expected to submit their updated national climate plans (NDCs) for the 2031-2035 timeframe to the UN climate office this year, with the collective goal of capping global temperature increases at 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The WMO anticipates that the average global near-surface temperature for each year from 2025 to 2029 will range between 1.2 and 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than the 1850-1900 average.

There is an 86% probability that at least one year during this period will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark compared to the historical average.

Additionally, the report indicates a 70% chance that the average temperature over the entire five-year span will be more than 1.5 degrees higher than the 1850-1900 average.

"The last decade has seen the warmest years on record. This WMO report offers no relief in sight, indicating increasing adverse effects on our economies, daily lives, ecosystems, and the planet," stated WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.

"Ongoing climate monitoring and forecasting are crucial for equipping decision-makers with the scientific tools and information necessary for adaptation," she added.

The WMO noted that South Asia has experienced wetter conditions in recent years (excluding 2023), a trend expected to persist from 2025 to 2029, although some seasons may still experience dryness.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported above-normal rainfall during the monsoon in four of the last five years and anticipates similar conditions this year.

The WMO also highlighted that the Arctic is projected to warm significantly faster than the global average over the next five winters (November to March), by approximately 2.4 degrees Celsius.

This warming is expected to lead to further reductions in sea ice in regions like the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk between 2025 and 2029.

From May to September during this period, areas such as the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia are likely to experience increased rainfall, while the Amazon may face drier conditions.