Monsoon Set to Arrive Early in Kerala This Year
Early Arrival of Monsoon in Kerala
This year, the monsoon is expected to make its entrance in Kerala by May 27, according to forecasts from the meteorological department. This marks an arrival four days earlier than the usual schedule. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated that the onset of the southwest monsoon in Kerala serves as a signal for its progression into the mainland of India.
Predictions for Monsoon Rainfall
Typically, the monsoon reaches Kerala by June 1. Earlier this year, the IMD predicted a 'normal' monsoon rainfall at 96% of the long-term average (LPA). However, the actual rainfall recorded was 94%, which falls within the agency's margin of error.
Impact of El Niño on Rainfall
In 2023, which is classified as an El Niño year, cumulative rainfall was below average, measuring 820 mm compared to the LPA of 868.6 mm. Prior to this year, India experienced four consecutive years of 'normal' to 'above normal' rainfall. The IMD's long-term forecast suggests that from June to September, monsoon rainfall may exceed the LPA by 105%, with a model error margin of ± 5%.
Comparison with Previous Year
Last year, the monsoon was above normal, achieving 108% of the LPA. For 2023, despite the prediction of a 'normal' monsoon at 96% of the LPA, the actual rainfall was lower at 94%, still within the agency's error range.
Significance of Monsoon for Agriculture
Satellite imagery indicates dense cloud cover over the Andaman Sea and around Kerala. The monsoon contributes to approximately 70% of India's rainfall and is crucial for the economy. About 51% of the agricultural sector, which accounts for 40% of production, relies on rainfall, with 47% of the population depending on agriculture for their livelihoods.
Importance of Steady Rainfall
Thus, consistent and moderate rainfall is vital for the agricultural and rural sectors, as opposed to heavy downpours. Adequate rainfall can help stabilize prices of essential commodities like sugar, pulses, rice, and vegetables, potentially alleviating inflationary pressures.