What to Expect from the Monsoon: IMD Predicts Delayed Onset in Kerala

Monsoon Forecast for Kerala

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon is anticipated to arrive in Kerala around June 4. Traditionally, this weather pattern begins around June 1, marking the start of the monsoon season that lasts until September.

According to the IMD's latest forecast, conditions are becoming favorable for the southwest monsoon to progress into additional areas of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, the Lakshadweep Islands, and parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu by June 4.

The monsoon is also expected to extend into various regions of the southwest, west-central, east-central, and northeast Bay of Bengal, as well as the remaining areas of the southeast Bay of Bengal around the same time.

Initially, the IMD had predicted that the monsoon would commence in Kerala on May 26, but this was postponed. On May 29, the department indicated that the onset might occur the following week.

In a recent update, the IMD revised its rainfall forecast for the season, suggesting that it would be below normal.

This year, India is projected to receive approximately 90% of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall.

The LPA represents the average rainfall recorded in a specific region over a defined period, typically spanning 30 to 50 years. For India, the LPA of seasonal rainfall, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 cm.

If the rainfall during the monsoon season falls below 90% of the LPA, it is categorized as 'deficient.'

One contributing factor to the anticipated below-normal rainfall could be the development of El Niño conditions, which are known to reduce monsoon precipitation in India.

Currently, neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions are shifting towards El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific region.

The IMD has indicated that El Niño conditions are expected to be weak in June but may strengthen to moderate or strong levels by September.