What to Expect from India's Weather in November: IMD's Forecast Revealed

Weather Predictions for November

New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that most regions in India will experience higher than average maximum temperatures in November. However, areas near the Himalayan foothills may see temperatures that are normal or even below normal.

Additionally, the IMD predicts that minimum temperatures across the country will also be above normal, with exceptions in central and eastern India where temperatures may remain normal or below normal.

The forecast indicates that most of India will likely experience below-normal rainfall in November, except for certain regions in central, northwest, and Northeast India, which may receive normal to above-normal precipitation.

Overall, the country is expected to receive approximately 77% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall for the month.

LPA refers to the average rainfall recorded over a specific region for a defined period, typically spanning 30 to 50 years.

For November, the LPA rainfall across India, based on historical data from 1971 to 2020, is around 29.7 mm.

In South Peninsular India, the forecast also suggests a similar 77% of LPA, with the region's LPA for November being approximately 118.7 mm.

The IMD has noted that very strong El Niño conditions are currently present in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Forecasts from the latest Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) and other global climate models indicate that these strong El Niño conditions are expected to persist through November and December.

El Niño is one of the three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate phenomenon marked by variations in sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, along with atmospheric changes.

While El Niño typically leads to a warming effect globally, its counterpart, La Niña, generally causes cooling. ENSO can also enter a neutral phase.

A significant El Niño can disrupt typical temperature and rainfall patterns, potentially causing severe droughts in some areas while leading to heavy rainfall and flooding in others, along with increased heat in various regions.