UNESCO Reports Alarming Rise in Global Out-of-School Children: What You Need to Know

Significant Increase in Out-of-School Youth

New Delhi: According to the latest findings from UNESCO's Global Education Monitoring Team (GEM), the number of children not attending school worldwide has surged to 272 million, marking an increase of over 21 million since the previous estimate.

The report highlights that by 2025, nations are projected to fall short of their educational goals by 75 million.

This rise can be attributed to two main factors. Firstly, new data on enrollment and attendance accounts for an additional eight million, or 38%, of the increase. The prohibition on girls attending secondary school in Afghanistan since 2021 has also significantly contributed to this figure.

Secondly, revised UN population estimates add another 13 million, representing 62% of the increase. The 2024 World Population Prospects indicate that the number of children aged 6 to 17 in 2025 is expected to be 49 million higher than previously estimated, reflecting a 3.1% increase.

The report further emphasizes that the effects of conflicts on school attendance are often underestimated, as such situations hinder accurate data collection.

Changes in global population estimates directly influence the rates of out-of-school children, but the extent of this impact varies based on the data sources used for enrollment and attendance.

When administrative data is the source, the entire population increase is reflected in the out-of-school figures due to a lack of updated enrollment information.

Conversely, if survey data is utilized, the population increase is distributed proportionately between in-school and out-of-school figures. Since many countries with significant out-of-school populations rely on survey data, only a portion of the increased school-age population is classified as out of school.

Currently, approximately 11% of primary school-age children (78 million), 15% of lower secondary school-age adolescents (64 million), and 31% of upper secondary school-age youths (130 million) are not enrolled in school.

The model employed integrates various data sources, including administrative records, surveys, and census data, to create consistent trends for regional and global averages.

At the country level, this model reconciles different data sources, imputes values for years lacking data, and includes short-term projections.

These estimates differ from official out-of-school figures, which are based on a single data source for a specific year. The latter figures serve as the foundation for national targets aimed at reducing out-of-school rates by 2025 and 2030.

According to the SDG 4 Scorecard, if countries meet their targets, they could decrease the out-of-school population by 165 million by 2030.

However, projections indicate that by 2025, nations will be off track by four percentage points for primary and lower secondary school-age children and by six percentage points for upper secondary school-age youths, totaling a shortfall of 75 million compared to their national goals.

The report also points out that the impact of conflict on out-of-school populations is frequently underestimated.

The model for out-of-school estimates assumes stable patterns of school-age population progression through the education system. However, this assumption falters during emergencies and crises, where school attendance can fluctuate dramatically.

In such situations, it cannot be presumed that long-term trends will persist, and often there is insufficient information to assess the short- and medium-term effects of crises. Conflicts disrupt data collection on school participation, likely leading to an undercount of out-of-school children.