The Impact of Russia's Silence and China's Support on India's Security Landscape

The Role of the Russian S-400 in Operation Sindoor

The Russian S-400 system was pivotal during Operation Sindoor, effectively crippling Pakistan within a mere three days. However, Russia's lack of commentary during this conflict has sparked numerous inquiries regarding President Putin's stance, particularly in relation to India. Meanwhile, China's apparent disregard for India was evident as it seemingly supported Pakistan indirectly, believed to be aiding the Pakistan Air Force in electronic warfare and networking. Additionally, China supplied PL-15 missiles to Pakistan, which were utilized against India. This raises concerns about whether China is fully collaborating with Pakistan for potential future conflicts against India, leading to fears of a two-front war.

Speculation Surrounding Russia's Silence

The absence of a response from Russia amid rising tensions between India and Pakistan has led to speculation that Russia, traditionally an ally of India, may have succumbed to Chinese influence and opted for silence. Historically, India has faced Pakistan alone in conflicts, with the exception of the 1971 war when Russia provided support. Conversely, while China did not overtly assist Pakistan, it has been accused of providing covert support.

China's Realization of Pakistan's Limitations

According to geopolitical defense analyst Prakash Nanda, India has been grappling with the prospect of a two-front war in past confrontations. This scenario encompasses both covert and overt support from adversaries. Following Operation Sindoor, it appears that China has recognized Pakistan's inability to defeat India independently. Consequently, China, which has been discreetly aiding Pakistan through various means, may now be inclined to openly support Pakistan in a conflict against India.

Historical Context of China-Pakistan Relations

Nanda notes that post the 1962 war between India and China, Pakistan grew closer to China, ceding significant territories like Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir and Shaksgam Valley. This proximity allowed China to extend its reach near Ladakh. During the 1965 war, China threatened India over border violations in Sikkim, and in 1971, it criticized India and Russia's actions during the Bangladesh Liberation War, accusing them of expansionist tendencies.

China's Response to India's Military Actions

During Operation Sindoor, China labeled India's airstrike against Pakistan as 'regrettable.' While it refrained from directly supporting Pakistan, Chinese media and social platforms engaged in disseminating anti-India propaganda, portraying Pakistan as victorious and emphasizing the significance of its J10-C fighter jets. Reports suggest that China is expected to deliver its fifth-generation fighter jet, the J-35A, to Pakistan in August.

China's Arms Exports to Pakistan

Since 2015, China has reportedly sold around $8.2 billion worth of arms to Pakistan, accounting for approximately 63% of its total arms exports during this timeframe. This includes a range of military equipment such as tanks, fighter jets, air defense systems, and ammunition. Despite these extensive defense transactions, China has not formalized a 'mutual defense treaty' with Pakistan akin to the agreements the United States has with NATO or its allies in Asia, indicating that China prefers to maintain a strategic partnership limited to border issues while projecting a pro-peace image globally.