Rising Tensions: Potential Armed Conflict Between India and Pakistan by 2026

Increased Risk of Conflict

A recent report from a U.S. think tank indicates a heightened likelihood of armed conflict between India and Pakistan by 2026, attributed to a surge in terrorist activities. The Council on Foreign Relations conducted a survey among American foreign policy experts, highlighting that the Trump administration sought to mitigate tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad.

Ongoing Global Conflicts

The report elaborates that the previous Trump administration aimed to resolve several ongoing conflicts, including those in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Gaza, Ukraine, and between India and Pakistan, as well as Cambodia and Thailand.

Recent Clashes in May

Notably, in May of this year, clashes erupted between India and Pakistan when New Delhi initiated Operation Sindoor against terrorist organizations operating in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. This operation was a response to the killing of 26 civilians, primarily tourists, by Pakistan-backed terrorists in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir.

Targeting Terrorist Bases

The locations targeted by India included major command centers of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), groups responsible for significant attacks such as those in Pulwama (2019) and Mumbai (2008). Over 100 terrorists were reported killed during this operation.

Pakistan's Retaliation

In retaliation, Pakistan attempted to strike Indian military bases on May 8, 9, and 10. India responded with missile and drone strikes aimed at key military installations in Pakistan.

Ceasefire Agreement

Following four days of cross-border drone and missile attacks, both nations agreed on May 10 to de-escalate tensions and cease hostilities. This ceasefire was reached after discussions at the DGMO level, initiated at Pakistan's request.

Pakistan Acknowledges Damage

On Saturday, Pakistan officially confirmed that its Noor Khan Air Base was targeted during Indian missile strikes under Operation Sindoor. This acknowledgment marked a rare deviation from Islamabad's usual stance of downplaying the impact of Indian military actions.

During a press briefing, Pakistan's Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar stated that the air base, located in the Chaklala area of Rawalpindi, suffered damage from Indian missiles, resulting in injuries to personnel stationed there. He noted, "They (India) send drones towards Pakistan. In 36 hours, at least 80 drones were sent... We managed to intercept 79 out of 80 drones, and only one drone caused damage to a military installation, injuring soldiers in the process."