Northeast India Expected to Experience Normal Monsoon Rainfall Despite National Shortfall
Positive Outlook for Northeast Monsoon
Representational Image
Guwahati, May 29: India is predicted to face a southwest monsoon that is weaker than usual this year. However, the Northeast region, including Assam, is expected to fare better, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting normal rainfall for the June to September monsoon period.
The IMD's Long Range Forecast for the Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall 2026 indicates that the nation is likely to receive around 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall, with a margin of error of ±4%.
This suggests that the overall monsoon will be categorized as below normal at the national level.
In contrast, the Northeast is anticipated to receive normal rainfall, which is defined as between 94% and 106% of the LPA during the monsoon season.
Central and South Peninsular India, however, are expected to see below-normal rainfall, and Northwest India is also likely to experience a shortfall compared to seasonal averages.
The forecast brings some relief to Assam and the Northeast, where concerns about rainfall variability affecting agriculture, water resources, and livelihoods have been prevalent.
This region stands out as one of the few areas in the country where seasonal rainfall is expected to remain within the normal range, despite the overall weaker monsoon forecast.
The IMD has noted that while most of the country is likely to experience below-normal rainfall, certain areas in Northwest and Northeast India may see normal to above-normal precipitation.
Similar conditions are also anticipated in parts of the eastern South Peninsula, adjacent east-central India, and isolated areas of East India.
The forecast for June 2026, marking the start of the monsoon season, is also promising for the Northeast.
While the country as a whole is expected to receive below-normal rainfall, some regions in Northeast India are projected to record normal to above-normal rainfall during this month.
Conversely, most other parts of the country are likely to experience below-normal rainfall in June, with only select areas in Northwest India, parts of the South Peninsula, and isolated pockets of Central India expected to receive normal or above-normal precipitation.
The IMD has also predicted warmer conditions for June, with maximum temperatures likely to be above normal across most regions, while minimum temperatures are also expected to be elevated in many areas.
However, some regions in Northwest, Central, and East India may see normal to below-normal temperatures.
Another concern raised in the forecast is regarding the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), which encompasses a significant portion of the country’s rain-fed agricultural areas. The IMD has projected below-normal rainfall for the MCZ, which raises concerns for agriculture-dependent regions outside the Northeast.
The weather agency plans to release its forecast for July rainfall in the last week of June, which will provide a clearer understanding of how the monsoon is expected to progress during the peak rainy season.