Northeast India Anticipates Mixed Monsoon Season After Years of Deficits
Monsoon Forecast for Northeast India
File image of fishing during Monsoon season in Meghalaya (Photo: Wish Bone India/Meta)
Guwahati, April 19: Following five years of subpar monsoon rainfall, the Northeast region is expected to experience a more favorable monsoon season from June to September this year, although conditions may vary for Assam.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that certain areas in the Northeast will likely receive above-normal rainfall during the monsoon, contrasting with the forecast for much of India, which predicts below-normal precipitation.
According to the initial forecast, many regions across the country are expected to see below-normal rainfall, except for select areas in the Northeast, northwest, and South Peninsular India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is anticipated.
While some parts of the Northeast are projected to benefit from ample monsoon rains, western Assam and the easternmost regions may still face a shortfall in seasonal rainfall.
States like Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram are also likely to experience below-normal monsoon rainfall.
The IMD will release a second-stage monsoon forecast by the end of May.
Overall, the monsoon rainfall across the country is expected to reach 92 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA), based on both dynamical and statistical forecasting models.
The IMD's Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) indicates the potential development of El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season.
Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail in the Indian Ocean, with recent climate models suggesting that positive IOD conditions—where the western Indian Ocean near Africa becomes significantly warmer than the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia—are likely to emerge towards the end of the southwest monsoon season.
El Nino is characterized by a significant warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which affects tropical atmospheric circulation, including wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns.
While El Nino typically leads to reduced rainfall, a positive IOD is generally seen as beneficial for precipitation in India.
Pre-monsoon rainfall in the region has been notably high, with Assam receiving 166.6 mm of rain in March—an excess of 129 percent compared to the normal of 72.6 mm.
From March 1 to April 16, the state recorded 68 percent more rainfall than usual.
The Northeast has endured five consecutive years of below-normal monsoon rainfall, with last year marking the second-lowest monsoon total (1,089.9 mm) in 125 years, following 2013's record of 1,065.7 mm.