Maharashtra Legislative Council Elections: Will Uddhav Thackeray Seek Another Term?

Upcoming Elections for Maharashtra Legislative Council

Mumbai: The Election Commission of India has declared that biennial elections will be held for nine seats in the Maharashtra Legislative Council, with voting set for May 12.

A press release from the Commission indicated that the terms of nine current members will end on May 13, prompting the need for these elections.

The members whose terms are expiring include Sanjay Kishanrao Kenekar, Neelam Diwakar Gorhe, Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray, Sandeep Diwakar Joshi, Dadarao Yadavrao Keche, Amol Ramkrushna Mitkari, Ranjitsinh Vijaysinh Mohite-Patil, Rajesh Dhondiram Rathod, and Shashikant Jaywantrao Shinde.

The election notification will be released on April 23, with the deadline for nominations set for April 30.

Nomination papers will be scrutinized on May 2, and candidates can withdraw their nominations until May 4.

If necessary, polling will occur on May 12 from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., followed by vote counting at 5 p.m. on the same day. The election process is expected to conclude before May 13.

The ruling Mahayuti coalition has a significant advantage with a surplus of 235 votes, allowing them to comfortably secure eight of the nine available seats, which include five for the BJP, two for Shiv Sena, and one for NCP.

Currently, the MVA coalition, comprising 20 Shiv Sena (UBT) MLAs, 16 Congress MLAs, and 10 NCP(SP) MLAs, can potentially elect one candidate, assuming no cross-voting occurs.

To win, a candidate needs 29 first-preference votes based on the current composition of the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly.

Political speculation is rife regarding whether Uddhav Thackeray, the Shiv Sena (UBT) leader and former Chief Minister, will pursue another term in the Upper House. The Congress party has also laid claim to one of the seats.

Vijay Wadettiwar, the leader of the Congress Legislative Party, has urged MVA partners, including Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP(SP), to allocate the seat to Congress, citing their support for Sharad Pawar during the Rajya Sabha elections.

Traditionally, the Thackeray family has avoided direct electoral contests, a trend that shifted in 2019 when Aaditya Thackeray won the Worli Assembly seat, marking the family's first foray into public representation.

After the 2019 Assembly elections, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition was established, with Uddhav Thackeray becoming Chief Minister despite not holding a seat in either legislative house. He was subsequently elected unopposed to the Legislative Council in May 2020, with his term ending on May 13, raising questions about his future.

Following Eknath Shinde's rebellion and his resignation as Chief Minister, Thackeray initially considered resigning from his Legislative Council seat but ultimately chose to remain due to the remaining four years of his term.

Observers have noted Thackeray's limited activity in the Upper House since the government transition, with his attendance often restricted to a few sessions. Recently, he did engage in discussions regarding a condolence motion for Ajit Pawar during the ongoing Budget Session.

Sanjay Raut, a spokesperson for Shiv Sena (UBT), previously proposed a strategy where Sharad Pawar would represent the alliance in the Rajya Sabha while Uddhav Thackeray would serve in the Legislative Council. This arrangement facilitated Pawar's unopposed election to the Rajya Sabha with Congress's backing, and it is believed that Congress's support for the MVA's council seat hinges on Thackeray being the candidate.

While Shiv Sena (UBT) is advocating for Thackeray's candidacy, the Shinde-led faction may complicate matters by fielding an additional candidate. Despite the MVA's surplus of 17 votes beyond the required quota, the ruling coalition may still attempt to ensure that Thackeray's re-election is not straightforward.

Political analysts suggest that Thackeray's re-election hinges on the unity of the 16 Congress MLAs and 10 NCP(SP) MLAs. If even a few of these 46 MLAs are swayed to support a Mahayuti candidate, Thackeray's previously secure seat could face a challenging second-preference vote count.

Should the Shinde-led Shiv Sena introduce a third candidate, or if the Mahayuti fields an additional candidate, they would aim to capture the MVA's 19 surplus votes. Given that the Council election employs a secret ballot, these extra votes are a key target for political maneuvering.

In this context, the ultimate decision now lies with Uddhav Thackeray, whose choice will significantly influence the MVA's electoral strategy.