Lessons from the Iran Conflict: Implications for India's Military Strategy

Shifting Military Strategies in Light of Recent Conflicts

The recent tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran have compelled military strategists worldwide to reassess their perspectives. This prolonged conflict has demonstrated that modern warfare transcends mere displays of conventional power. For India, which achieved a significant victory over Pakistan through 'Operation Sindoor' just a year ago, the insights gained from the Iran conflict could lay the groundwork for 'Operation Sindoor 2.0'. Rather than succumbing to pressure, Iran has emerged more unpredictable and potentially more dangerous. This conflict has imparted a crucial lesson: contemporary warfare cannot be fought using outdated, traditional methods. Given that a year has passed since India's 'Operation Sindoor' against Pakistan, it is imperative to heed the warnings presented by the Iran conflict.

Understanding the Parallels Between Iran and Pakistan

One might wonder why this is significant. In many respects, Iran mirrors Pakistan. In his book 'Tinderbox: The Past and Future of Pakistan', former Union Minister M.J. Akbar described Pakistan as a "toxic jelly-like nation"—perpetually unstable. Unlike butter, which melts or solidifies, jelly remains wobbly yet retains its form. Therefore, when a neighboring country harbors terrorism and is led by a radical military chief like Asim Munir, the question is not 'why' the next conflict will occur, but rather 'when' it will happen.

India's Strategic Template for Pakistan

Following three days of hostilities last May, Prime Minister Narendra Modi established a strategic template—a 'New Normal'—where India would respond decisively and accurately to any nuclear blackmail without hesitation.

Intelligence Reports Highlighting Threats

A U.S. intelligence report presented to the Senate in March specifically noted the existence of conditions under which terrorist elements could continuously create 'crisis situations'. The report did not dismiss the possibility of a future nuclear conflict. Another report from a U.S. think tank indicated a 'moderate likelihood' of armed conflict between India and Pakistan due to an uptick in terrorist activities.

Preparing for Modern Warfare

In light of these circumstances, it becomes crucial for Indian military planners to prepare for a fast-paced, multi-front war equipped with drones and missiles, as demonstrated by the Iran conflict. The significant damage inflicted on technologically superior U.S. and Israeli forces by a country half the size of India has prompted military strategists worldwide to rethink their approaches. The conflict, which engulfed the entire Middle East, introduced a new term—'asymmetric warfare'—which involves sudden attacks utilizing guerrilla tactics and drones.

The Advantages of Non-Kinetic Warfare

The Iran conflict also showcased the benefits of non-kinetic warfare, where damage can be inflicted without crossing a nation's airspace. Iran effectively utilized this strategy by deploying swarms of inexpensive 'Shahed' drones to attack U.S. military bases and energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

Operation Sindoor: A Case Study

A glimpse of this was evident during 'Operation Sindoor'. In the darkest hours of May 7, India launched its most daring operation in retaliation for the Pahalgam terrorist attack, engaging in a 'stand-off' conflict that involved the use of long-range weapons to obliterate nine terrorist camps deep within Pakistani territory.

Pakistan's Response and India's Defense

In response, Pakistan unleashed waves of Turkish-made 'Asisgard Songar' drones, targeting approximately 35 military installations from Punjab to Jammu. However, most of these were intercepted by India's integrated air defense network, with the Russian S-400 Triumph playing a pivotal role. A ballistic missile aimed at Delhi—likely the 'Fateh'—was also neutralized over Haryana.

The Aftermath of the Conflict

The following day, the Indian Air Force targeted 11 Pakistan Air Force bases in a powerful assault involving fighter jets and drones. Pakistan had no option but to retreat and plead for a ceasefire. May 10, 2025, will be etched in Pakistan's memory, akin to December 16, 1971, when 93,000 Pakistani soldiers surrendered during the Bangladesh Liberation War.

Future Warfare Strategies

Defense expert Sandeep Unnithan noted that 'Sindoor' has clarified the framework for future conventional conflicts with Pakistan. He stated, "I would call it 'Cold Start 2.0', where the Indian Army can transition from 'silent to violent' in mere minutes for the first time in its history."

The Importance of Geography

The Iran conflict underscored the significance of geography. Despite losing most of its air and naval fleet to U.S. and Israeli attacks, Tehran effectively leveraged its geographical position, using the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial global oil corridor—as a weapon in the conflict, ultimately forcing U.S. President Donald Trump to seek a ceasefire.

Utilizing Pakistan's Geography

India can similarly exploit Pakistan's geography. Consider this: Pakistan stretches only 1,600 km from north to south and 885 km from east to west. Unnithan pointed out that this east-west distance is roughly equivalent to the maximum range of a BrahMos cruise missile. This means that no target within Pakistan is beyond the reach of Indian missiles, highlighting the role of 'Cold Start 2.0'.

The Role of Drones in Modern Warfare

During the Iran conflict, drones proved to be game-changers. Not the expensive U.S. MQ-4C Triton drones, which cost around $200 million, but rather the Iranian 'Shahed' drones, priced at approximately $35,000 each.

Cost-Effectiveness of Drone Warfare

Despite its weakened air force, Iran effectively utilized a large number of 'Shahed' drones to disrupt far more powerful Gulf forces, targeting not only oil facilities and other critical infrastructure but also undermining U.S. and Israeli advanced defense systems.

India's Future Drone Capabilities

Conversely, the U.S. and Israel spent millions trying to intercept these drones using 'Patriot' missiles, each costing $4 million. It raises the question of the logic behind spending such sums to intercept a drone that costs less than 1% of that amount. India, during 'Sindoor', also employed Israeli-made 'Harop' loitering munitions. However, using expensive missiles or UAVs to down a cheap drone is not a sustainable strategy. According to Unnithan, India may be one of the few major countries without plans for mass-producing affordable drones.

Emerging Drone Technologies

Nonetheless, India could soon have its own 'Shahed' drones, as the 'Sheshnag-150' and 'Project KAL' are currently in development. This brings us to the third lesson from the Iran conflict—the economic aspect of modern warfare.

The Need for a Rocket-Missile Force

It is now clear that in this era of 'non-contact warfare', guided munitions play a crucial role. Countries like China and Iran maintain separate forces known as 'Rocket-and-Missile Forces'. In fact, Iran likely possesses one of the world's most powerful missile forces.

Pakistan's Military Developments

Following 'Sindoor', Pakistan has accelerated efforts to establish an 'Army Rocket Force' with assistance from its steadfast ally, China. Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi emphasized the necessity of this during his address on 'Army Day' earlier this year, stating, "This is the greatest need of our time."

The Role of Mobility in Warfare

So far, the 'Core of Army Air Defense' (AAD) has managed the entire arsenal of missiles and rockets. In the event of a small but fast-paced conflict, a separate 'Rocket Force' could play a vital role in countering the enemy's saturation attacks.

Adopting the 'Shoot and Scoot' Strategy

The fifth lesson from this conflict is the importance of mobility or the 'shoot-and-scoot' strategy. Despite claims by Trump that U.S. air power far exceeds that of Iran, the latter managed to shoot down advanced fighter jets like the F-15E 'Strike Eagle' and reportedly even an F-35. It is believed that Iran, lacking an air defense system, utilized shoulder-fired missiles that are harder to intercept.

Investing in Mobile Defense Systems

After a brief 12-day conflict, Iran distanced itself from fixed air defense installations and invested in mobile surface-to-air missile launchers. These can quickly change positions, making them harder to target. The idea is straightforward—fire a missile and relocate before the launchers can be targeted.

Strengthening India's Air Defense

Defense Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh emphasized the importance of this strategy during a summit, stating, "Whether in the Middle East or the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, both provide us with lessons... such as the importance of stand-off weapons, the need for a robust multi-layered air defense system, and ensuring that your radars and artillery are mobile."

Future Developments in Air Defense

Efforts to develop a more robust air defense system are already underway; last Independence Day, PM Modi announced 'Mission Sudarshan Chakra', which is essentially a multi-layered defense shield modeled after Israel's 'Iron Dome'.

Conclusion: Adapting to Modern Warfare

During the conflict in May 2025, India demonstrated its capabilities within 80 hours. However, it also suffered losses, as acknowledged by Chief of Defense Staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan. Therefore, adopting the lessons from the Iran conflict becomes crucial, as it has shown that modern warfare extends beyond traditional battlefields. If executed correctly, 'Operation Sindoor 2.0' could prove to be even more lethal.