Kerala Anticipates Arrival of Southwest Monsoon Around June 4
Monsoon Forecast for Kerala
The southwest monsoon is expected to make its entrance in Kerala around June 4, according to predictions from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) released on Tuesday. Typically, the monsoon arrives in Kerala around June 1, marking the onset of the southwest monsoon season, which lasts from June to September.
In its daily forecast, the IMD stated, "Conditions are favorable for the further advancement of the southwest monsoon into parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, as well as certain areas of Kerala and Tamil Nadu around June 4."
Extended Monsoon Predictions
The forecast indicates that the monsoon will also progress into additional regions of the southwest, west-central, east-central, and northeastern Bay of Bengal, along with the remaining parts of the southeast Bay of Bengal around the same date. Initially, the IMD had predicted that the monsoon would arrive in Kerala around May 26, but this did not occur. Subsequently, on May 29, the department suggested that the monsoon could arrive the following week.
Last week, the IMD revised its forecast, indicating that this year's monsoon rainfall is expected to be below normal. The department estimates that the long-term average (LPA) rainfall in India this year will be around 90%.
Understanding Long-Term Average Rainfall
The term LPA refers to the average rainfall recorded in a specific area over a defined period (such as a month or a season), typically calculated based on data spanning 30 to 50 years. The national average for seasonal rainfall is 87 centimeters, based on statistics from 1971 to 2020. If the rainfall during the monsoon season falls below 90% of the LPA, the IMD categorizes it as 'insufficient.'
One potential reason for below-normal rainfall could be the emergence of El Niño conditions, which often lead to reduced precipitation during the monsoon season in the country. Currently, neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific are transitioning towards El Niño conditions.
El Niño and Its Impact
The neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation represents an intermediate climate state in the tropical Pacific, where sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure are neither in an El Niño (warm) nor a La Niña (cool) state. The IMD has indicated that El Niño conditions are likely to remain weak in June, while by September, this weather pattern may strengthen to a moderate or strong state.