Is COVID-19 Becoming Just Another Seasonal Illness? Experts Weigh In
COVID-19's Evolving Nature
New Delhi: While COVID-19 continues to circulate, experts assert that the virus is becoming milder over time. They anticipate occasional spikes in cases due to its endemic nature and ongoing mutations, but they emphasize that there is no immediate cause for alarm.
Experts attribute the recent uptick in cases to a combination of reduced immunity and seasonal factors, such as extreme temperatures that lead to increased indoor activity. They urge caution, especially among vulnerable populations.
"COVID-19 is evolving into a less severe respiratory illness, comparable to the flu. It should no longer be viewed as a unique threat," stated Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya, a global health expert.
Anurag Agarwal, dean of biosciences at Ashoka University, added, "The current subvariants exhibit lower virulence but higher transmissibility. Most individuals, particularly those with prior infections or vaccinations, are less likely to experience severe illness."
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared an end to COVID-19 as a 'public health emergency' in May 2023. Health professionals now categorize the virus as 'seasonal' and 'endemic'.
As of June 6, active COVID-19 cases in India surpassed 5,300, with nearly 500 new cases reported in the last 24 hours. The recovery rate remains high, with over 4,700 individuals having recovered, while the death toll stands at 55 since the surge began in January, primarily affecting those with pre-existing conditions.
Dr. Lahariya advised that individuals over 65 and those with underlying health issues should adhere to standard precautions, similar to those taken for other respiratory infections.
Kerala currently reports the highest number of cases, exceeding 1,600, followed by Gujarat, West Bengal, Delhi, and Maharashtra, according to government data.
This surge in India aligns with a broader increase in infections across Southeast Asia, including Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Hong Kong.
Recent wastewater analysis by the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research-National Chemical Laboratory (NCL) has detected SARS-CoV-2 in samples from ten sewage treatment facilities in Pune, indicating patterns similar to those preceding earlier surges.
Genome sequencing has linked current cases in western and southern India to Omicron subvariants LF.7, XFG, JN.1, and NB.1.8.1. However, these cases are not severe, and there is no cause for concern, according to Rajiv Behl, Director General of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR).
The WHO has classified LF.7 and NB.1.8.1 as 'variants under monitoring' (VUM), signaling the need for public health authorities to pay close attention. JN.1 has been present in India since November 2023.
Behl emphasized that the situation is under continuous observation.
Immunologist Satyajit Rath noted that the subvariants appear to bind more effectively to human cells, despite existing antibodies from previous infections or vaccinations. However, he stressed that the critical factor is not their infectivity but their potential to cause severe illness.
"The selection pressure on virus strains is based on infectivity rather than virulence, and no consistent increase in virulence has been observed," Rath explained.
Experts agree that fluctuations in infection rates are expected as the virus continues to mutate.
"There is no need for public concern unless a new 'variant of concern' is identified. VUM is primarily relevant for public health authorities," Agarwal stated.
Lahariya encouraged the public to seek information from credible sources and avoid spreading unverified claims, while Rath advised vigilance regarding the virulence of new strains.
The experts also highlighted the importance of governmental oversight.
"National and state authorities should monitor case trends and share data transparently. Understanding the relationship between infections and clinical outcomes is crucial for assessing the variants in circulation," Lahariya said.
Rath pointed out systemic issues regarding public health preparedness and healthcare access, particularly if a more virulent variant emerges.
"The key question is how effectively our public health systems are tracking virus strains and their characteristics, not just for SARS-CoV-2 but for other infections as well," he remarked.
"Are we developing next-generation COVID-19 vaccines and ensuring their accessibility? Are we monitoring how well current vaccines perform against emerging strains?" he added.
The most vulnerable populations require special protection, yet the availability of masks and other preventive measures remains a concern.
"If these resources are not provided freely, we risk leaving disadvantaged communities to fend for themselves, which is a systemic issue," Rath concluded.