Iran's Leadership Crisis: Mysterious Health of Supreme Leader and Military Influence
Serious Condition of Iran's Supreme Leader
According to a report from a prominent news outlet, the health of Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is critical. He is currently receiving treatment at a secret location, with limited contact due to security concerns. The report claims that he has undergone three surgeries on one leg and arrangements for a prosthetic leg are being made. His face and lips have suffered severe burns, making it difficult for him to speak. Amidst this, it is being suggested that real power in Iran is shifting to the General of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Growing Influence of the IRGC
As reported, four officials with knowledge of the situation indicated that the Supreme Leader has had minimal communication with his generals recently. Experts believe this power vacuum is being filled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran's most powerful military force. An expert from a think tank mentioned that Mojtaba, the potential successor, does not have full control yet. Decisions are often made beforehand, with Mojtaba merely informed afterward. Another analyst echoed this sentiment, stating that Mojtaba is not truly 'supreme'; he may hold the title but lacks the power of his father, operating under the influence of the IRGC.
Shift in Governance
The same report highlights that the IRGC played a significant role in halting negotiations with the U.S. in Islamabad, sidelining the elected civilian government, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Following the potential death of Ali Khamenei due to U.S.-Israeli attacks, Mojtaba has taken over as Supreme Leader. However, since assuming office, he has neither appeared in public nor issued any statements, seemingly trying to avoid appearing 'weak'. Direct communication with him is absent, with sealed letters being delivered instead.
Government Operating in a 'Board-Style'
A former advisor commented on the changing power dynamics in Iran, stating that Mojtaba is managing the country as if he were a 'director' of a company, with military generals as board members. This contrasts sharply with the previous governance style of his father, where all power and decision-making authority rested with the Supreme Leader. Now, military commanders have gained more influence in decision-making. This shift occurs during a time of indefinite ceasefire between Iran and the U.S., as both nations seek to resume talks and reopen critical maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz. However, given the internal turmoil over power and the IRGC's increasing control, hopes for successful negotiations and diplomacy with the U.S. remain dim.