Iran Prepares for Potential Mass Casualties During Khamenei's Funeral

Contingency Plans in Place for Funeral Ceremonies

Iranian officials are reportedly making contingency plans for a possible mass-casualty event during the week-long funeral ceremonies for the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A classified assessment, as reported by a German publication, suggests that fatalities could range from 1,500 to 3,000 due to the anticipated large crowds, extreme summer temperatures, and logistical challenges as millions gather in various cities.

Classified Document Highlights Worst-Case Scenario

The report indicates that a confidential letter, prepared by the Iranian Red Crescent Society in collaboration with the National Crisis Management Organization, was sent to First Vice President Mohammad-Reza Aref. This document outlines a dire scenario predicting between 1,500 and 3,000 deaths during the funeral processions. Authorities have reportedly set up a special unit to handle fatalities and missing persons, with numerous new graves prepared at Behesht-e Zahra Cemetery in Tehran.

A municipal worker in Tehran, who requested anonymity for security reasons, confirmed the existence of emergency preparations. "The graves are indeed prepared. Officials have indicated that up to 3,000 deaths would be manageable. With such large crowds and the intense heat, the situation is unpredictable," the source stated.

Extensive Security Measures Implemented

The funeral ceremonies commenced in Tehran on Saturday and will proceed to Qom, the holy Iraqi cities of Najaf and Karbala, culminating in Khamenei's burial in Mashhad later this week. Iranian authorities have initiated one of the largest logistical operations in the country’s history, which includes:

• Deployment of 11,000 buses throughout Tehran.


• Free, continuous metro and bus services.


• Temporary kitchens to provide meals for mourners.


• Schools and mosques repurposed as accommodation facilities.


• Traffic restrictions and potential air travel disruptions.

Officials have estimated attendance could reach up to 20 million, although this figure remains unverified and is considered challenging to confirm.

Financial Aspects of the Funeral Draw Criticism

The report also highlights that the Tehran Municipality, under hardline Mayor Alireza Zakani, has allocated substantial funds for the funeral arrangements. Each district reportedly received between €500,000 and €650,000 for the ceremonies, not including additional expenditures from emergency services and transportation authorities. Estimates suggest the total funeral budget for Tehran alone could be around €15 million, with an additional €5 million for ceremonies in Qom and Mashhad. Events in Iraq may further elevate the costs, potentially making this one of the most expensive state funerals in Iran's recent history.

Concerns Arise from Past Funeral Incidents

This contingency planning is particularly significant given the history of deadly stampedes at funerals in Iran. In January 2020, a surge during the funeral of IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani resulted in at least 56 deaths and over 200 injuries. Similarly, the 1989 funeral of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini saw chaotic scenes that left at least eight dead and hundreds injured. These past tragedies have intensified worries about crowd safety as millions are expected to attend Khamenei's funeral.

Political Climate Remains Tense

The ceremonies are taking place amid a delicate regional ceasefire and rising political tensions following Khamenei's assassination. Hardline supporters of the Islamic Republic have reportedly used public gatherings to criticize ongoing diplomatic negotiations with the United States, targeting senior officials involved in these discussions. Videos circulating online show some mourners calling for retaliation against the U.S. and Israel, while others express discontent over the significant public spending on the funeral during a time of economic struggle. While the report has garnered international attention, the central claims, including the projected death toll, remain unverified, and Iranian authorities have not confirmed the existence of such a document.