India's September Rainfall Forecast: Below Normal Amid Record Heat

Monthly Rainfall Predictions for India

New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the overall rainfall in India for September is expected to fall below the normal levels, according to their latest monthly forecast released on Monday.

The IMD also highlighted that August 2026 was recorded as the hottest August since 1901, with an average temperature of 28.01 degrees Celsius.

Rainfall for September is projected to be less than 91% of the long-period average (LPA), which is a statistical measure of rainfall over a specific region averaged over several decades.

For this month, the LPA is estimated at approximately 167.9 mm, based on historical data from 1971 to 2020.

Additionally, the IMD indicated that the average maximum temperatures for September are likely to exceed normal levels.

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the Director General of Meteorology at the IMD, stated that strong El Nino conditions are currently present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures remaining elevated in the central and eastern regions.

He noted, "These conditions are anticipated to intensify in the upcoming months."

Mohapatra reiterated that August 2026 was the hottest on record since 1901, with a mean temperature of 28.01 degrees Celsius, surpassing the normal mean of 27.34 degrees Celsius.

The average minimum temperature for August 2026 also reached a record high of 24.36 degrees Celsius, compared to the normal of 23.68 degrees Celsius.

The month experienced a significant rainfall deficit, totaling 213.3 mm, marking it as the seventh lowest since 2001, according to the IMD.

The prevailing moderate to strong El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific were identified as a major factor contributing to the below-normal rainfall.

Despite the formation of four low-pressure systems during August, which lasted for a total of 26 days, their rainfall effects were primarily limited to the Indo-Gangetic plains, leaving other regions with insufficient rainfall.