India's Russian Oil Imports Surge: What It Means for Global Energy Dynamics

India's Rising Russian Oil Imports

New Delhi: In August, India's daily imports of Russian oil reached 2 million barrels, reflecting refiners' focus on economic factors in their procurement strategies.

According to Kpler, a global data analytics firm, approximately 38% of the 5.2 million barrels per day of crude oil imported in early August originated from Russia.

This figure marks an increase from 1.6 million barrels per day in July. The rise in Russian oil imports has come at the expense of Iraqi oil, which saw a drop to 730,000 barrels per day in August from 907,000 in July, and Saudi Arabian oil, which fell to 526,000 barrels per day from 700,000 barrels.

The United States ranked as the fifth-largest supplier, contributing 264,000 barrels per day, as per Kpler's data.

"Despite the tariff announcement by the Trump administration in late July 2025, Russian crude imports into India have remained stable in August," stated Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler. "The current stability is largely due to cargoes being secured in June and early July, prior to any policy changes."

He emphasized that any significant changes in import flows due to tariffs or logistical issues will likely become apparent only from late September to October.

Ritolia noted that there has been no government mandate to reduce Russian oil imports, indicating that operations continue as usual.

Arvinder Singh Sahney, chairman of Indian Oil Corporation, confirmed that the government has not instructed a slowdown in purchases from Russia following President Trump's imposition of a 25% tariff on US imports from India, which raised the total duty to 50% as a penalty for ongoing Russian oil imports.

"We are neither directed to increase nor decrease our purchases," he remarked. "Our approach remains neutral regarding Russian crude. We are not actively trying to change the volume of Russian oil we buy."

In the April-June period, Russian oil constituted about 22% of the crude processed by IOC, and this proportion is expected to remain stable in the near future.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) Director (Finance) Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta mentioned during an investor call that imports from Russia had decreased from 34% of total imports in the June quarter, as discounts narrowed to USD 1.5 per barrel.

"Provided there are no new sanctions on Russian oil, we plan to maintain our procurement strategy at 30-35% Russian crude for the remainder of the year," he stated.

As the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, India quickly shifted to discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions imposed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Previously accounting for less than 0.2% of India's imports, Russian oil now represents 35-40% of the country's crude intake. However, discounts have decreased from a peak of USD 40 per barrel to just USD 1.5 last month.

This month, discounts have increased to over USD 2 per barrel.

Ritolia pointed out that Indian refiners are closely monitoring the situation. "There is a growing interest in sourcing oil from the US, West Africa, and Latin America, not necessarily as a move away from Russian supply, but to mitigate potential disruptions. This reflects a shift in focus from maximizing margins to ensuring energy security and managing logistical risks."

He added that increasing purchases from other regions does not equate to replacing Russian oil. "Crude procurement is a complex, ongoing process influenced by refinery configurations, grade compatibility, and economic factors. Indian refiners still need to acquire 60-65% of their crude from non-Russian sources, and this mix has not drastically changed. What we are witnessing is increased flexibility, not a strategic shift. Until there is a clear policy change or a sustained alteration in trade economics, Russian oil will remain a part of India's crude supply, and discussions about replacement are premature."

Sahney reiterated that there have been no sanctions on Russian crude oil imports, allowing India to continue purchasing based on economic considerations.

"These purchases will persist unless sanctions are enacted," he stated. "We have not received any directives from the government to alter our purchasing strategy. We are conducting business as usual."

Regarding speculation that refiners might be encouraged to increase imports from the US to appease Trump, the IOC Chairman remarked, "We are neither instructed to buy more nor less from the US or any other source. Our actions are guided by economic factors."