Impact of Middle East Conflict on Assam's Tea Industry
Concerns Over Assam's Tea Exports
Jorhat, March 4: The ongoing turmoil in the Middle East poses a significant threat to Assam's tea sector, particularly if disruptions to vital shipping lanes persist, warns Prabhat Bezbaruah, a notable tea planter and former chairman of the Tea Board of India.
Bezbaruah highlighted that a prolonged conflict and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route, could drastically impact India's tea exports to West Asian nations.
“The tea sector will incur losses if the conflict drags on. Last year, India shipped approximately 280 million kilograms of tea, with around 40 percent (nearly 100 million kilograms) directed to West Asian markets such as Iraq, Iran, the UAE, Oman, and Jordan,” he stated.
He elaborated that the robust trade relationship between Indian tea producers and West Asia means that any extended instability in the region could severely disrupt export activities.
“Currently, exports to these nations could be significantly affected. It's not just Iran; the overall instability in the region could hinder trade flows,” he added.
Bezbaruah emphasized that the situation would escalate if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or faces restrictions for an extended duration.
“Should the Hormuz Strait be closed for a long time, it would severely impact the tea industry, as shipments to various West Asian markets rely on that route,” he remarked.
However, he pointed out that while Iran is part of the export market, the volume of tea sent directly to the country is relatively small.
“Last year, around 12 million kilograms of tea were exported to Iran. Even if Iran's imports are affected, the direct impact may not be substantial. However, instability across the broader West Asian region will inevitably influence overall exports,” he clarified.
Bezbaruah noted that the United States, another key market, is likely to remain largely unaffected by the ongoing conflict.
“Last year, we exported about 20 million kilograms of tea to the U.S., and the current conflict is not expected to significantly disrupt exports to that market,” he mentioned.
He added that it is premature to fully evaluate the war's impact on the tea sector, as Assam's new production cycle typically commences in April.
“Tea production in Assam begins in April. Only then will we start to gauge how the current geopolitical climate may influence exports and trade dynamics,” he stated.
In addition to geopolitical challenges, Bezbaruah expressed worries about the slow onset of Assam's tea production season this year, primarily due to insufficient rainfall.
“The season's start has not been promising. There has been minimal rainfall thus far, and the little we have received is inadequate for the plantations,” he noted.
He explained that the upcoming months are critical for the industry.
“For the tea sector, March, April, and May are vital months. Tea production is heavily reliant on weather conditions during this timeframe. If rainfall improves and temperatures stay moderate, production could still rebound,” Bezbaruah concluded.
Reflecting on last year's figures, Bezbaruah stated that Assam remains India's largest tea-producing region.
“Last year, Assam produced approximately 680 million kilograms of tea, while the national total was around 1,330 million kilograms,” he added.
He reiterated that favorable weather conditions in the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this year's production can match or surpass previous levels.