Impact of Conflict on Global Digital Infrastructure: A Closer Look
Conflict's Ripple Effect on Digital Connectivity
Recent developments indicate that the ongoing conflict is beginning to influence the digital sector significantly. Reports emerged last week revealing that Meta has halted progress on the Persian Gulf segment of its extensive 2Africa cable project. The contractor, Alcatel Submarine Networks, has issued force majeure notices, leaving its cable ship, Île de Batz, stranded near Dammam, Saudi Arabia. This situation highlights that the conflict is jeopardizing not only existing digital pathways but also delaying the expansion of new capacities intended to enhance resilience in the Gulf and nearby areas.
Red Sea and Hormuz: Critical Digital Corridors
The Red Sea is acknowledged as a vital subsea data corridor globally. Various reports and strategic analyses have emphasized the high concentration of international cable systems in this region, which connects Europe with Asia and Africa through a narrow maritime route. Last year's disruptions in the Red Sea, affecting systems like SMW4 and IMEWE, served as a stark reminder of the vulnerability of this infrastructure, leading to connectivity issues and increased latency for users in India and parts of West Asia.
Similarly, the Strait of Hormuz, while geographically smaller, holds significant importance for regional digital communications. According to TeleGeography, several active cable systems, including AAE-1, FALCON, Gulf Bridge International Cable System, and Tata-TGN Gulf, traverse this strait, linking Gulf data centers and traffic exchanges to broader international networks. This makes Hormuz not only a critical oil chokepoint but also a key communications hub.
While undersea cables are not easily targeted, they remain susceptible to disruptions from various factors such as anchors, accidents, seabed activities, and military operations in conflict zones. The Red Sea's shallowness has long been viewed as a vulnerability, and similar concerns are now being raised regarding Gulf waters as tensions escalate in neighboring states. The suspension of commercial work in the Gulf adds weight to these concerns, moving the discussion beyond mere theory.
Understanding the Real Risks: Disruption Over Total Outage
Despite some alarming claims circulating online, the reality is more nuanced. It is accurate that undersea cables facilitate the vast majority of international internet traffic, with one study indicating that over 95% of this traffic, along with approximately $10 trillion in daily financial transactions, relies on these systems. However, assertions that 30% of the world's internet traffic specifically passes through Hormuz or that there is 'no Plan B' are harder to substantiate. In practice, networks can reroute, redundancy is built into systems, and damage to one route does not necessarily lead to a global blackout.
The real threat lies in severe degradation, congestion, latency spikes, and regional outages rather than complete darkness. This distinction is crucial for a professional understanding of the situation. The cumulative stress signals are concerning: first, delays in commercial cable construction; second, the Red Sea's previous disruptions affecting India and the broader region; and third, the Gulf's current status within an active conflict zone. If existing cable routes in the Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz were to be damaged while new resilience projects are stalled, the repercussions could extend to finance, cloud services, enterprise networks, and state communications far beyond the Middle East.
Thus, the pressing question is not whether Iran can 'switch off the internet' overnight, but rather whether the ongoing conflict is drawing one of the world's most critical yet least visible infrastructure systems into a risk zone. Based on the evidence available, this question is increasingly becoming a reality. While missiles may capture headlines, the pressure is already mounting beneath the surface.