IMD Predicts Below-Average Monsoon Rainfall Across India

Monsoon Forecast Update

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Friday that the monsoon rainfall across the country is expected to be below normal, projected at 90% of the long-term average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4%. This marks a reduction from the earlier forecast made in April, which estimated the LPA at 92%. Historical data from 1971 to 2020 indicates that the average monsoon rainfall from June to September is approximately 87 centimeters.

According to the IMD's forecast probabilities, there is a 60% chance of below-average rainfall (less than 90% of LPA), a 24% chance of slightly below-normal rainfall (90-95% of LPA), a 14% chance of normal rainfall (96-104% of LPA), a 2% chance of above-normal rainfall (105-110% of LPA), and no chance of excessive rainfall (over 110% of LPA).

M. Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, emphasized that the forecast probabilities are not the only factor considered. The prediction of 90% of LPA is based on the total rainfall expected this season, taking into account dynamic factors as well. This is particularly concerning for the agricultural sector, as the southwest monsoon's seasonal rainfall in the core zone (MCZ), which encompasses most of the country's rain-fed agricultural land, is likely to be below normal, potentially falling below 94% of LPA.

The IMD also noted that northeastern India is expected to experience normal rainfall (94-106% of LPA), while central and southern peninsular India (less than 94% of LPA) and northwestern India (less than 92% of LPA) are likely to see below-normal rainfall.