How the US-Venezuela Conflict Affects India's Trade: Insights from GTRI
Minimal Impact of US-Venezuela Tensions on India
New Delhi: According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), the ongoing conflict between the US and Venezuela is unlikely to significantly affect India's trade relations with the South American nation.
On January 4, US military forces executed a significant operation in Venezuela, resulting in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and his spouse, who were taken to the US to face multiple charges, including drug trafficking and narco-terrorism.
Ajay Srivastava, the founder of GTRI, stated, "India will experience minimal repercussions, as trade with Venezuela has drastically declined due to sanctions, with crude oil imports plummeting by 81.3% in FY2025 and overall trade remaining minimal."
He further noted that the unrest in Venezuela is not expected to have a substantial economic or energy impact on India.
Historically, India was a significant purchaser of Venezuelan crude oil during the 2000s and 2010s; however, since 2019, bilateral trade has sharply decreased due to US sanctions, compelling India to reduce oil imports and limit commercial activities to evade secondary sanctions.
Consequently, Srivastava remarked that India's trade with Venezuela is currently small and on a downward trend.
In FY2025, India's total imports from Venezuela amounted to only USD 364.5 million, with crude oil constituting USD 255.3 million, marking an 81.3% decline from USD 1.4 billion in crude imports in FY2024.
India's exports to Venezuela were relatively low at USD 95.3 million, primarily driven by pharmaceuticals worth USD 41.4 million.
"Considering the low trade volumes, existing sanctions, and the considerable geographical distance, the recent developments in Venezuela are not anticipated to have any significant effect on India's economy or energy security," he concluded.
Venezuela possesses approximately 18% of the world's oil reserves, surpassing Saudi Arabia's 16%, Russia's 5-6%, and the United States' 4%.