Crucial Election Day in India: Key Battles in West Bengal, Assam, and Tamil Nadu
A Pivotal Day for India's Political Landscape
Today marks a significant moment for the political future of India. The counting of votes for the assembly elections held in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry commenced at 8 AM this morning. Will Mamata Banerjee manage to defend her stronghold? Can the magic of 'Thalapathy' Vijay prevail in the south? And will Himanta Sarma complete his 'hat-trick' in Assam? Answers to these pressing questions will emerge by this afternoon.
BJP's Ambitions in West Bengal
If the exit polls prove accurate—something that has rarely happened in recent election cycles—the BJP appears poised to secure a third consecutive term in Assam and may even surpass the TMC in West Bengal. In Tamil Nadu, Chief Minister M.K. Stalin's DMK is likely to return to power, although Vijay's influence could play a crucial role. Some analysts have even suggested that the 'Jana Nayagan' actor could be close to forming a government. In Puducherry, exit polls predict an easy victory for the All India NR Congress (AINRC) and NDA.
Can BJP Breach Mamata's Stronghold?
The biggest suspense surrounds West Bengal, where Mamata Banerjee faces her toughest challenge yet from the BJP, which has labeled the state as its 'final frontier.' In the 2021 elections, the TMC won 215 seats, while the BJP trailed significantly with 77 seats.
The BJP has invested all its resources into this election, prompting the Election Commission to deploy a record 240,000 central security forces. This was necessitated by the violent history of elections and post-election clashes in West Bengal.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah highlighted this issue in over 50 rallies. PM Modi framed the 2026 elections as a battle to transform 'fear' into 'trust.' The BJP mobilized all its chief ministers for campaigning, emphasizing the lack of development and rising unemployment during Mamata's 15-year rule. The party also raised the issue of 'infiltrators' or 'Bangladeshi infiltrators,' claiming they constitute the TMC's core voter base.
Voter List Changes Add Uncertainty
However, this election is not solely about BJP versus TMC or development issues. A 'Special Intensive Revision' of the voter list has led to a nearly 12% reduction in the number of voters, adding an element of excitement and uncertainty to the electoral contest.
Before voting, around 9 million names were removed from the voter list. Over 6 million were categorized as 'absent' or 'deceased,' while approximately 2.7 million cases remain undecided.
Notably, most of the removed names were from Muslim-majority districts like Murshidabad, Malda, and North Dinajpur. Given that the minority community has historically been a key voter base for Mamata Banerjee, BJP leaders believe that this removal will disadvantage the TMC.
High-Stakes Rematch in Bhawanipur
Another intriguing aspect of the Bengal elections is Bhawanipur—Mamata Banerjee's constituency and TMC stronghold. After losing to her fierce rival Suvendu Adhikari in the Nandigram seat in 2021, Mamata returned to the assembly through a by-election in Bhawanipur.
This time, the BJP has once again fielded Suvendu Adhikari against her, turning this contest into a 'high-profile rematch.'
BJP's Hat-Trick Hopes in Assam
Looking north, a fierce contest unfolded in Assam between Sarma and Congress's Gaurav Gogoi. Sarma is vying for a second consecutive term as Chief Minister.
He promised to create an 'infiltrator-free' Assam, targeting 'Miyas' (Bengali-speaking Muslims) in his campaign. He emphasized the infrastructure development and welfare initiatives undertaken by his government, promoting the slogan of 'jati (community), mati (land), and bhiti (home or foundation).'
Congress's Strategy Against BJP
On the other hand, Congress has focused its attacks on alleged corruption during Sarma's tenure and the misuse of government machinery in illegal land eviction campaigns. Additionally, Congress is relying on 'social engineering' to counter BJP's strategies. The three Gogoi leaders—Gaurav, Raijor Dal's Akhil Gogoi, and Assam Jatiya Parishad's Lurin Jyoti Gogoi—have united to appeal to the Ahom community.
In the previous assembly, the BJP held 64 seats in the 126-member house, supported by its allies—AGP (9), UPPL (7), and BPF (3). Despite being a dominant force for the past decade, the BJP has not achieved a majority on its own.
Tamil Nadu's Election Dynamics
Turning to the south, Tamil Nadu witnessed a fierce electoral battle. Traditionally viewed as a two-way contest between the Dravidian parties—DMK and AIADMK—this election has gained a new dimension with the entry of actor Vijay's party, 'Tamilga Vetri Kazhagam' (TVK).
The opposition alliance AIADMK, which includes the BJP, believes that Tamil Nadu voters have never given the DMK consecutive terms in the last half-century. Besides issues of corruption and law and order, the AIADMK alliance has also raised the issue of 'nepotism' vigorously. The BJP has accused the DMK government of serving only the interests of the 'Stalin family.'