Bangladesh's Shift Towards China: A Growing Concern for India
Bangladesh's Strategic Moves Raise Alarm
Among the various challenges India faces in its neighborhood, the growing relationship between Bangladesh and China stands out as particularly concerning. Recently, during a visit to China, Muhammad Yunus, the Chief Adviser of Bangladesh's interim government, sparked controversy by asserting that Bangladesh serves as the 'sole guardian' of the Indian Ocean, given that India's seven Northeastern states are landlocked. In a widely circulated video, Yunus suggested that China should consider establishing a military base in Bangladesh, a move perceived as a direct threat to India's strategic interests. Additionally, Yunus secured Chinese backing for the modernization of Bangladesh's Mongla Port, a project estimated at $400 million. China also pledged $350 million to enhance the China Economic and Industrial Zone in Chittagong, along with $150 million for technical support. Another significant topic discussed was the Teesta River, which both Bangladesh and India share, with Yunus seeking Chinese assistance for the Teesta Barrage project.
Bangladesh's growing ties with China raise significant concerns for India, particularly regarding the security of the Siliguri Corridor, often referred to as the 'Chicken's Neck.' This narrow land corridor in West Bengal connects India's Northeastern states to the rest of the country and holds immense geopolitical and economic significance. The historical economic challenges faced by Northeast India have led to unrest in several states, with Manipur currently experiencing severe ethnic violence. The region's porous borders with China, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Bhutan further expose it to external influences and potential cross-border infiltration.
In addition to strengthening ties with China, the new Bangladeshi government is also enhancing its relationship with Pakistan. Diplomatic and economic cooperation is rapidly advancing, with relaxed visa restrictions, increased trade, resumed direct flights, and potential military collaboration on the horizon.
While the previous government under Sheikh Hasina maintained close ties with India, Yunus' administration appears to be shifting its focus towards Beijing and Islamabad. For nearly two decades, India's approach to Bangladesh was shaped by Hasina's leadership, which sought cooperation from New Delhi across various sectors. However, India's foreign policy establishment seems to have misread the sentiments of the Bangladeshi populace, who revolted against Hasina's secular yet autocratic rule last year. This uprising led to her ousting and the rise of radical Islamist factions, marked by widespread violence against minorities, including Hindus. Furthermore, India's decision to shelter Hasina and its lack of response to Bangladesh's request for her extradition over alleged crimes against humanity remain contentious issues.
In light of Dhaka's overtures towards China and Pakistan, Yunus' statements in Beijing appear to be deliberate and strategic. They reflect the strengthening ties between Dhaka, Islamabad, and Beijing, which pose a growing challenge for India. As India faces the risk of being encircled by adversaries, it must approach these developments with caution. Diplomacy requires a nuanced understanding, leaving little room for bravado. Unfortunately, current trends do not suggest a more pragmatic approach from India in addressing these emerging threats.