Bangladesh Elections: BNP Poised for Victory Amid Rising Tensions
BNP's Surge in Popularity Ahead of Elections
New Delhi, Jan 6: Recent opinion polls indicate a significant shift in favor of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which is now projected to achieve a substantial victory in the upcoming elections set for February 12.
Previously, forecasts suggested a competitive race between the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami. However, the latest data shows that 70% of voters are inclined to support the BNP, led by the late Khaleda Zia's party.
In contrast, the Jamaat-e-Islami has garnered only 19% of public support, highlighting a considerable gap in voter preference.
The newly established National Citizen Party (NCP) has managed to attract 2.9% of the electorate, according to a survey conducted by Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD).
Analysts attribute the BNP's rising popularity to several factors, including the public's sympathy following Khaleda Zia's passing.
Additionally, the return of her son, Tarique Rahman, has energized party members, who are actively campaigning.
Moreover, the Bangladeshi populace appears to be distancing itself from the Jamaat due to ongoing violence that has plagued the nation.
An official from the Intelligence Bureau noted that citizens are aware that a Jamaat-led government would compromise the country's independence, as it would be heavily influenced by the ISI.
Furthermore, the general public desires a prosperous nation rather than one governed by religious extremism. Many citizens fear that an ISI-supported Jamaat could lead to a regime similar to Iran's.
The survey also revealed a notable shift among supporters of Sheikh Hasina's Awami League, with many now favoring the BNP.
Experts suggest that the Awami League's disqualification from the elections may have contributed to this change, with 60% of its supporters indicating they would vote for the BNP, while 25% would back the Jamaat.
The Jatiya Party, on the other hand, holds a mere 1.4% support according to the poll.
Interestingly, the BNP enjoys considerable backing from women, with 71% expressing their intention to vote for the party. The BNP is particularly strong in regions like Rajshahi and Chattogram, where it is expected to secure around 70% of the votes.
The survey, conducted between December 20 and January 1, also indicated that 77% of respondents believe the BNP will emerge victorious.
Officials have pointed out that the Jamaat is rapidly losing its influence in the country.
The party's reliance on religious politics and support from the ISI has not worked in its favor. Despite the Jamaat's student wing, the Islamic Chhatra Shibir, performing well in university elections, the national polls seem to be heading in a different direction.
Another official remarked that the Jamaat has fallen into a trap set by the ISI, leading to a chaotic situation in Bangladesh.
Most Bangladeshis are advocating for a peaceful nation governed by constitutional law rather than Sharia Law.
India is reportedly hoping for a BNP-led government in Bangladesh. Following Khaleda Zia's death, Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed his condolences in a note delivered to Rahman by External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar.
New Delhi has been engaging with various BNP leaders, and should the BNP come to power, a cooperative relationship between the two nations is anticipated, according to experts.
Intelligence Bureau officials have noted that the BNP's lead is promising, but they caution that violence may escalate, as the Jamaat and ISI may attempt to create a climate of fear to justify postponing the elections.
In recent weeks, there has been a surge in violence, including the targeted killings of six Hindus, with two more murders occurring within the last 24 hours. Intelligence agencies warn that such incidents could increase as the elections approach.
Authorities are advised to maintain heightened vigilance along the borders, as there is a possibility that the ISI may try to incite unrest that spills over into India.