Assam Faces Severe Rainfall Deficit Amid Climate Crisis

Alarming Rainfall Deficit in Assam

Assam is grappling with a significant climate crisis, marked by an early monsoon that has brought disappointing rainfall. In June, the state experienced a remarkable 34 percent deficit in rainfall, a critical month that usually heralds a fruitful agricultural season. Predictions from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) suggest that July may continue this trend, potentially leading Assam, along with Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh, into another year of subpar monsoon conditions.

The figures are concerning, with Assam receiving merely 272 mm of rain in June, far below the normal 415.2 mm. The western districts were particularly affected, with Bajali facing a staggering 77 percent deficit, Darrang at 76 percent, and South Salmara at 72 percent. Even the typically wetter eastern Assam districts were not immune, as Dibrugarh reported a 56 percent shortfall and Golaghat a 37 percent decrease.

This situation is not isolated. Meghalaya has seen a 46 percent rainfall deficit, while Arunachal Pradesh recorded a 40 percent drop. If these trends persist, it will mark the fifth consecutive year of below-normal monsoon rainfall in the Assam-Meghalaya region.

While much of India anticipates average to above-average rainfall this year, the Northeast remains in a concerning rain shadow.

The consequences of this rainfall deficit are dire. Rain is essential for agriculture in Assam, which sustains a large portion of the rural population. Insufficient rainfall leads to decreased soil moisture, irrigation challenges, poor crop yields, and heightened food security risks. Additionally, livestock and forest ecosystems are adversely affected by prolonged dry periods. This declining trend in monsoon patterns is indicative of a larger climate shift.

Scientists suggest that this may be attributed to interdecadal climate variability, influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which affects monsoon patterns. While much of India is experiencing a 'positive epoch' of increased rainfall, the Northeast appears to be trapped in a 'negative epoch' characterized by reduced precipitation over several decades. The global climate outlook is equally concerning.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates an 80 percent likelihood that one of the next five years will set a record for the hottest temperatures, potentially exceeding even 2024. Europe is currently facing unprecedented heatwaves, with 'heat domes' becoming more intense and lasting longer, highlighting the disruptions caused by a warming planet.

In this light, the rainfall deficit in the Northeast is not merely a local concern; it serves as a critical warning. As rainfall diminishes and temperatures rise, the region's ecosystems, agricultural practices, and water resources will endure mounting pressure. The region's vulnerability is exacerbated by its dependence on monsoon agriculture and insufficient infrastructure for water storage and distribution. Policymakers must recognize that these deficits are not isolated incidents. Five consecutive years of diminished monsoon rainfall necessitate a comprehensive and strategic response.