Assam Chief Minister Downplays Election Survey Predictions

Chief Minister's Remarks on Election Survey

Dimoria, Jan 4: Following an electoral survey suggesting the BJP's potential victory in the upcoming 2026 Assembly elections, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma expressed skepticism on Sunday, stating that it is premature to make any definitive conclusions as the dynamics of alliances and seat-sharing arrangements remain unresolved.

During the MMUA seed fund distribution event in Dimoria, Kamrup (Metro), Sarma remarked that current opinion polls do not accurately reflect the political scenario.

“It is too early for surveys since the composition of the NDA and UPA is still unclear. The number of seats contested by the AGP and the BJP's share is also uncertain. A clearer picture will emerge by February,” he noted, after distributing seed money to approximately 24,000 beneficiaries.

He emphasized that neither the allocation of seats nor the selection of candidates for specific constituencies has been finalized, highlighting that actual public engagement is more significant than survey results.

“We should not place too much importance on surveys but rather focus on public attendance at events and the support we receive,” Sarma added.

When asked about the BJP's electoral chances post-delimitation, the Chief Minister indicated that the party might contest in up to 103 constituencies, an increase from previous estimates.

“We could potentially win in 103 constituencies. Initially, we estimated around 90, but with delimitation, 13 to 15 new seats have been added. The remaining 22 seats have a lower chance of victory. Ultimately, it will be the public's decision,” he stated.

Regarding the introduction of new candidates, Sarma suggested that the BJP is likely to field fresh faces, especially in newly added or strengthened constituencies following delimitation.

“The number of constituencies for the BJP has increased, including areas like Dimoria in Guwahati. New candidates will naturally emerge from the party,” he explained.

The Chief Minister reiterated that clarity on alliances, seat-sharing, and candidate selection would become evident in the coming months, urging party members to concentrate on grassroots outreach rather than speculative pre-election forecasts.

The survey released on Saturday projected the BJP to secure approximately 39% of the vote share, while the NDA could reach around 90 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly.

According to the survey, Congress is expected to achieve about 37% of the vote share, followed by AGP at 7%, BPF at 5.5%, UPPL at 1.2%, AIUDF at 2.5%, Raijor Dal at 0.9%, AJP at 0.7%, CPI(M) at 0.8%, and others collectively at around 5%.