Myanmar's Military Resurgence: Is the Resistance Movement Losing Ground?

Shifting Dynamics in Myanmar's Civil War

Bangkok: Over a year ago, Myanmar's military was struggling in the ongoing civil war, having lost significant territory in the northern regions to a coalition of experienced militias and new pro-democracy guerrilla fighters. However, the situation has evolved.

Currently, the Tatmadaw, Myanmar's military, has bolstered its ranks with tens of thousands of new recruits, regaining some of its lost ground and preparing to launch new offensives. Meanwhile, several opposition factions have withdrawn from combat, and internal conflicts along with supply shortages have weakened others.

"We are approaching a pivotal moment where the Tatmadaw may reassert its dominance, while the resistance could diminish," stated Morgan Michaels, an analyst from the International Institute of Strategic Studies based in Singapore.

Despite the potential decline of the broader resistance movement that emerged after the military coup, Michaels emphasized that the conflict is far from resolved.

"Armed resistance will persist in Myanmar until a comprehensive political solution is achieved, but the Tatmadaw has regained the strategic upper hand, favoring its position."

Fatigue Amidst Ongoing Conflict

After five years of relentless fighting, which has resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands, including around 8,000 civilians, and the displacement of millions, there is a palpable sense of exhaustion among both the combatants and the general populace, noted Aung Thu Nyein, a political analyst from Myanmar currently residing in Thailand.

"Many locals seem indifferent to the outcome of the war; they simply wish for the violence to cease," he conveyed via text.

China, a significant player in Myanmar's stability due to its investments in rare earth elements and other resources, is also exerting pressure for peace to safeguard its interests.

Beijing has invested heavily in Myanmar's mining, oil, and gas sectors and is a primary arms supplier to the Tatmadaw, alongside Russia.

China's influence extends to paramilitary groups operating along its borders, many of whom are ethnically Chinese.

China's Role in the Conflict

Initially, China backed the October 27, 2023, offensive against the Tatmadaw by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, driven by frustration over the military government's failure to control organized crime in border areas. However, it has since halted arms supplies to these militias and urged them to cease hostilities.

Among the Three Brotherhood Alliance, both the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army agreed to ceasefires last year following Chinese-mediated negotiations, leaving the Arakan Army as the only faction still actively engaged against the Tatmadaw in Rakhine state.

These Brotherhood Alliance members are established paramilitary groups organized along ethnic lines, known as Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs). The coup that ousted Aung San Suu Kyi also led to the rise of pro-democracy militias called People's Defence Forces (PDFs), many of which are linked to the shadow National Unity Government formed by former members of Suu Kyi's party.

Calls for Unity Among Resistance Fighters

As the Tatmadaw is expected to intensify its military actions, there is an urgent need for coordinated efforts among established EAOs and the NUG, as well as the Burma Liberation Democratic Front, a pro-democracy faction active in Sagaing and Mandalay regions.

"While there is a mutual understanding of the necessity to dismantle the military dictatorship and progress towards a federal union, discrepancies in strategies and tactics remain," the group stated in a written response.

"Differences in perspectives and organizational interests persist, and the Tatmadaw is actively trying to sow discord among the public and revolutionary forces, as well as between various ethnic groups and revolutionary factions."

The military leaders who ousted Suu Kyi recently conducted elections, which were criticized by UN experts as lacking fairness and suppressing opposition. Min Aung Hlaing, the military's senior general, was sworn in as president earlier this month.

Military's Peace Offer and Ongoing Attacks

In a bid to extend an olive branch, Min Aung Hlaing invited armed resistance groups to new peace talks, including both EAOs and PDFs. However, the National Unity Government quickly dismissed this offer as a tactic to prolong military rule.

The vague proposal, reported by state media, set a deadline of July 31 for participation, stipulating that groups should not present "unrealistic demands."

The implications of non-participation were not clarified, and the government did not respond to inquiries for comment.

In a possible attempt to placate the opposition, the military announced that Suu Kyi had been moved from prison to house arrest after being sentenced to 33 years in late 2022. Supporters and human rights advocates view her conviction as a strategy to legitimize the military takeover and prevent her political return.

Meanwhile, the Tatmadaw has continued its military offensives, including a significant operation in Sagaing aimed at reclaiming the northern city of Indaw, which was captured by PDF forces with support from the Kachin Independence Army last year.

Future Prospects for Myanmar

Simultaneously, the military is on the defensive in the east, attempting to fend off advances by the Karen National Liberation Army towards a key Tatmadaw stronghold near the Thai border.

With the invitation for talks, it appears that Min Aung Hlaing aims to revive the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreements established with around half of Myanmar's EAOs by previous administrations, which had previously fostered a degree of stability.

However, given the current lack of interest, more limited ceasefires may be the immediate objective, according to Michaels.

"In the short term, securing ceasefires with certain groups could allow the Tatmadaw to redirect resources towards factions that are either unwilling to agree to a ceasefire or that the military is reluctant to negotiate with," he explained.

"The Tatmadaw can tolerate some level of opposition and, in fact, requires a degree of active armed resistance to justify its governance and actions. However, the current extent of armed resistance across the nation is unsustainable."