Emerging Concerns Over Bangladesh's Security Ties with Pakistan
Unusual Developments in Dhaka
Recent events in Dhaka have raised eyebrows, particularly following the election campaign on February 12, 2026. An unexpected coalition has surfaced, which security analysts suspect may be linked to Pakistan's ISI. Central to this alliance is Nafisa Enterprise, a relatively new company in the textile dyes and chemicals sector, established in 2000 by Harun-or-Rashid. Despite its youth, the firm surprisingly holds licenses from the Directorate General of Defence Purchase and the Bangladesh Ordnance Factory, prompting questions about its role.
In contrast, Shibli Electronics, a Pakistani firm founded in 2012 by Syed Muhammad Shibli, is directly involved in military operations, focusing on surveillance systems and anti-drone technology. Notably, just ten days post-election, on February 22, 2026, discussions with the Bangladesh Army commenced.
Subsequent developments unfolded rapidly: four senior executives from Shibli, including Muhammad Munam Naseer and Syed Muhammad Ayaz, arrived in Dhaka and secured clearance from the Army’s General Staff Branch on March 29. Their visit was significant, granting them access to sensitive military sites like the Army Multipurpose Complex and the School of Infantry and Tactics in Sylhet, where they inspected weaponry and discussed integrating Shibli’s optics into military equipment. They were hosted at the exclusive Kurmitola Golf Club, inaccessible to the general public. Naseer registered at the club on April 10, with another delegation member expected shortly. Additionally, three Turkish women abruptly departed a nearby guesthouse on April 9, the reasons for which remain unclear. This sequence of events resembles what intelligence experts identify as classic proxy operations.
These activities are not occurring in isolation. The ISI has a historical precedent of intervening in Bangladesh's affairs, dating back to the 1971 Liberation War when it supported Islamic militias against the independence movement. Post-independence, ties between Bangladesh and Pakistan have continued to evolve, with Jamaat-e-Islami and its student organizations receiving covert support.
A 2016 report from the US Department of State indicated that approximately $100 million annually was funneled into militant networks in Bangladesh and other South Asian nations. However, the Sheikh Hasina administration had been staunchly opposed to such initiatives, imprisoning thousands suspected of involvement in extremist activities.
In 2024, the political landscape shifted dramatically when Hasina was ousted by popular protests, leading to a new leadership under Muhammad Yunus and Army Chief Waker-Uz-Zaman. This change allowed Pakistan to renew its activities, with numerous trade missions and closer defense cooperation. Bangladesh's arms imports from Pakistan surged from $2 million in 2023 to $28 million in 2025, with Islamabad pledging to supply around $1 billion in defense products, particularly fighter jets, through Turkish intermediaries.
Another alarming trend is the ideological shift occurring within Bangladesh. The country has the largest madrasa system globally, with nearly 1.6 million schools, many of which operate with minimal oversight. Reports suggest that since 2024, significant funds have been directed towards promoting a more conservative interpretation of Islam among students, a trend also observed in other regional nations.
Politically, Jamaat-e-Islami is regaining significant parliamentary influence, with intelligence reports indicating ongoing informal funding. Organizations like Hefazat-e-Islam and neo-JMB are also expected to gain traction, with some sources suggesting external support and training.
The implications of these developments are profound for the region. Indian intelligence is particularly wary of the potential for Bangladesh to be used as a base for attacks in the Siliguri Corridor, with reports of arms smuggling and financial backing for insurgent groups. In response, India has begun deploying special forces along its eastern borders.
However, the situation is complex, and for India to respond effectively, it must navigate a balance between robust diplomatic efforts and economic collaboration. Strengthening trade relations and connectivity could help steer Dhaka back towards stability.