Exit Polls Indicate Strong BJP Performance Across Five States
BJP Shows Promising Lead in Exit Polls
Recent exit polls suggest that the BJP is poised for a significant victory in five states. Most polls indicate that the BJP alliance is likely to form the government in Assam, West Bengal, and Puducherry. Except for one poll, predictions for Tamil Nadu show a return of the DMK to power. In Kerala, a major shift is anticipated after a decade, with the UDF potentially regaining control.
Assam's BJP Victory Forecast
According to Axis My India, the BJP is projected to secure between 88 and 100 seats in Assam, while Congress may win 24 to 36 seats. JVC's survey also estimates BJP's victory at 88 to 101 seats, with Congress possibly winning 23 to 33 seats. The AIUDF is expected to gain 0 to 2 seats, and other parties may secure three seats.
People's Pulse predicts the BJP alliance could achieve 68 to 72 seats, while Congress and its allies might garner 22 to 26 seats. Matriz's survey suggests the NDA could win between 85 and 95 seats, with Congress's coalition projected to secure 25 to 32 seats. Assam's assembly consists of 126 seats, with a majority threshold of 64.
In the previous 2021 elections, the NDA won 75 seats, with the BJP emerging as the largest party by winning 60 seats. Congress secured 29 seats, while the All India United Democratic Front won 16.
Kerala's Political Landscape Shifts
Several surveys indicate that Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's government in Kerala may be on its way out. Axis My India forecasts that the UDF, led by Congress, could win between 78 and 90 seats, while the ruling LDF might be reduced to 49 to 62 seats. The BJP alliance is expected to secure 0 to 3 seats.
People's Pulse also predicts a UDF comeback, estimating 75 to 85 seats for them, 55 to 65 for the LDF, and 0 to 3 for the NDA.
Matriz's survey similarly suggests a UDF government, projecting 70 to 75 seats for them and 60 to 65 for the LDF, with the BJP alliance possibly winning 3 to 5 seats. Kerala's assembly has a total of 140 seats, with a majority requiring 71.
West Bengal: BJP Gains Ground
Exit polls indicate a significant setback for Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal after more than 15 years. Nearly all surveys show the BJP leading. Matriz's survey estimates the BJP could win between 146 and 161 seats, while the ruling TMC may secure 125 to 140 seats. P-Mark has projected 150 to 175 seats for the BJP and 118 to 138 for the TMC. West Bengal's assembly comprises 294 seats, with a majority threshold of 148.
Tamil Nadu: Vijay's Party's Impact
In Tamil Nadu, all exit polls except for Axis My India predict a return of the DMK government. People's Pulse estimates the DMK alliance could secure 125 to 145 seats, while the AIADMK-BJP alliance may win 65 to 80 seats. Actor Vijay's party, TVK, is projected to win 18 to 24 seats.
Matriz's survey suggests the DMK alliance could achieve between 122 and 132 seats, while the NDA might secure 87 to 100 seats. Vijay's party is expected to win 10 to 12 seats in its first election.
Puducherry: A Tight Race Ahead
In Puducherry, the NDA is expected to lead in the 30 assembly seats. Axis My India forecasts the NDA could win 16 to 20 seats, while the DMK-Congress alliance may secure 6 to 8 seats. Vijay's party is projected to win 2 to 4 seats. Kamakhya Analytics predicts a DMK-led government in Puducherry, estimating 17 to 24 seats for them, 4 to 7 for the NDA, and 1 to 3 for others.