India's GDP Growth Forecast for 2025-26: Insights and Projections

Economic Growth Projections for India

According to the initial advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office, India's gross domestic product (GDP) is anticipated to increase by 7.4% in the fiscal year 2025-26, up from 6.5% in 2024-25.

This projection, issued by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, slightly exceeds the Reserve Bank of India's growth forecast of 7.3%.

Manufacturing output is expected to rise by 7% in the current fiscal year, a notable improvement compared to the previous year's growth of 4.5%. The construction sector is also projected to achieve a growth rate of 7%, although this is a decline from last year's impressive 9.4%.

In the agricultural sector, growth is forecasted at 3.1%, which is lower than the 4.6% recorded in 2024-25. Meanwhile, the electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services sector is expected to grow at a modest rate of 2.1%.

These advance estimates provide a comprehensive overview of the anticipated economic performance for the upcoming year, assisting the finance ministry in making informed decisions regarding budget allocations.

The Union Budget for the fiscal year 2026-27 is projected to be unveiled in the first week of February.

In the tertiary sector, financial, real estate, professional services, and public administration, along with defense and other services, are estimated to grow by 9.9% this fiscal year.

Additionally, the trade, hotels, transport, communication, and broadcasting services sectors are expected to see a growth of 7.5%.