China's Exports Surge Back to Growth, Surpassing $1 Trillion Trade Surplus
China's Trade Performance in November
Hong Kong: In November, China's exports rebounded, marking a significant recovery after an unexpected decline in October. This growth has propelled the nation's trade surplus for 2025 to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, as reported on Monday.
Exports increased by 5.9% compared to the previous year, while imports saw a modest rise of just under 2%.
The customs data released on Monday indicated a nearly 29% year-on-year drop in shipments to the United States. However, as trade with the US declines, China is actively seeking to diversify its export markets across Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America.
Following a contraction of just over 1% in October, November's global exports reached $330.3 billion, surpassing economists' forecasts. Imports for the month totaled $218.6 billion.
The trade surplus of approximately $1.08 trillion for the first eleven months of this year sets a new record, exceeding the $992 billion surplus recorded for the entirety of 2024, according to data compiled by FactSet.
While exports to the US have been on a downward trend for most of the year, shipments to other regions, including Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the European Union, have seen significant growth.
A trade truce between China and the US was established during a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in late October in South Korea. The US has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods, and in return, China has agreed to suspend its export controls on rare earth materials.
Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank, noted that the November export figures may not yet fully reflect the impact of the tariff reductions, which are expected to manifest in the coming months.
Despite the strong export performance, China's factory activity has contracted for the eighth consecutive month in November, leading economists to caution that it is still too early to determine if there is a genuine rebound in external demand following the trade truce.
With exports remaining robust, many economists anticipate that China will achieve its target of approximately 5% annual growth for this year.
Chinese leaders have emphasized a commitment to advanced manufacturing over the next five years following a high-level meeting in October.
An annual meeting led by Xi was held on Monday to outline plans for 2026, as reported by the Xinhua state news agency. The leaders reiterated their focus on 'pursuing progress while ensuring stability.'
Chi Lo, a Global Market Strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, expressed skepticism about the longevity of the recent stabilization in trade relations with Washington, citing ongoing stalemate in China-U.S. relations despite the temporary truce.
Nevertheless, some economists are optimistic that China will continue to expand its share of the export market in the coming years.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that by 2030, China's share of global exports will rise to 16.5%, up from approximately 15% currently, driven by advancements in manufacturing and growth in sectors like electric vehicles, robotics, and batteries.
Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist at Morgan Stanley, stated, 'Despite ongoing trade tensions, rising protectionism, and G20 economies adopting active industrial policies, we believe China will capture a larger share of the global goods export market.'