China's Exports Surge Back to Growth, Surpassing $1 Trillion Trade Surplus
China's Trade Performance in November
Hong Kong: In a notable turnaround, China's exports experienced growth in November following an unexpected decline in October, resulting in a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the first time in 2025, as reported on Monday.
Exports rose by 5.9% compared to the previous year in November, while imports saw a modest increase of just under 2%.
The customs data released on Monday indicated a significant drop of nearly 29% in shipments to the U.S. year-on-year. However, as trade with the U.S. diminishes, China is actively seeking to diversify its export markets across Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America.
After a contraction of just over 1% in October, November's global exports reached $330.3 billion, surpassing economists' expectations. Imports for the month totaled $218.6 billion.
The trade surplus of approximately $1.08 trillion for the first eleven months of this year marks a record high, exceeding the $992 billion surplus recorded for the entirety of 2024, according to official data from FactSet.
While exports to the U.S. have been declining throughout the year, shipments to other regions, including Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the European Union, have surged.
A trade truce between China and the U.S. was established during a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late October in South Korea. The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods, and China has agreed to suspend its export controls on rare earth materials.
Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank, noted in a report that November's export figures may not yet fully reflect the impact of the tariff reductions, which are expected to manifest in the coming months.
Despite the positive export figures, China's factory activity has contracted for the eighth consecutive month in November, leading economists to caution that it is too early to determine if there is a genuine rebound in external demand following the trade truce.
With exports remaining robust, economists generally anticipate that China will achieve its target of around 5% annual growth for this year.
Chinese leaders have outlined a focus on advanced manufacturing for the next five years following a high-level meeting in October.
An annual meeting led by Xi was held on Monday to strategize plans for 2026, as reported by the Xinhua state news agency. The leaders reiterated their commitment to 'pursuing progress while ensuring stability.'
Chi Lo, Global Market Strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, expressed skepticism about the longevity of the recent stabilization in trade relations with Washington, citing that China-U.S. relations remain in a stalemate despite the temporary truce.
Nevertheless, some economists are optimistic that China will continue to expand its share in export markets in the coming years.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that by 2030, China's share of global exports will rise to 16.5%, up from approximately 15% currently, driven by advancements in manufacturing and growth in sectors such as electric vehicles, robotics, and batteries.
Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist at Morgan Stanley, stated in a recent note that despite ongoing trade tensions, protectionism, and active industrial policies among G20 economies, China is expected to gain a larger share of the global goods export market.