El Niño's Intensifying Impact: What to Expect for Global Weather Patterns

The World Meteorological Organization warns that El Niño conditions are likely to intensify, potentially lasting until February 2027. This phenomenon could significantly alter rainfall and temperature patterns, increasing the risks of floods, droughts, and extreme heat. Recent forecasts from the India Meteorological Department indicate a rainfall deficit and record high temperatures, raising concerns for agricultural production, particularly wheat. As El Niño strengthens, its impacts on global weather and agriculture are expected to escalate, prompting urgent attention from communities and economies worldwide.

By Narendra Chaudhary Sep 4, 2026, 15:37 IST

El Niño Conditions Expected to Strengthen

New Delhi: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has indicated that the current El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific are likely to escalate into a significantly strong event, potentially lasting until February 2027.

This phenomenon is expected to greatly influence rainfall and temperature trends, leading to increased risks of floods, droughts, and extreme heat.

In a recent statement, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo remarked, "El Niño, which translates to 'boy child' in Spanish, can have devastating effects on communities and economies worldwide."

She added, "We are already witnessing disruptions and destruction from droughts and floods, and these effects are anticipated to worsen as El Niño strengthens."

These projections from the WMO follow a forecast from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which stated that El Niño conditions might continue until February of the following year.

El Niño is one of the three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate phenomenon marked by variations in sea temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, along with atmospheric fluctuations.

While El Niño typically causes global warming, its counterpart, La Niña, usually results in cooling effects. ENSO also includes a neutral phase.

In India, El Niño conditions generally lead to reduced rainfall, which was confirmed by the IMD's report on August 31, indicating a 16 percent rainfall deficit across the country for that month.

Additionally, August 2023 was recorded as the hottest August in India since 1901, partly attributed to El Niño.

For September, the IMD predicts rainfall to be below 91 percent of the long-term average (LPA), which is approximately 167.9 mm based on historical data from 1971 to 2020.

Although the IMD has not yet released a post-monsoon seasonal forecast, the intensifying El Niño suggests that winter temperatures may rise, further complicating the situation as India is already experiencing warmer winters.

A recent analysis by Climate Trends, a climate research organization based in Delhi, indicates that winters in northern India are becoming shorter, with warming trends in February and March becoming increasingly common.

The study highlights that February has seen the most rapid warming, with temperatures increasing by 0.69 degrees Celsius per decade, while March and April have also experienced significant rises of 0.58 degrees Celsius and 0.66 degrees Celsius, respectively.

These temperature shifts pose a risk of severe heat stress on Rabi crops, particularly wheat, as they coincide with critical growth stages.

"These temperature changes coincide with the reproductive and grain-filling stages of wheat and are already impacting production in key wheat-growing areas," the study concluded.