Will India's Crude Oil Imports from Russia Surge Amid West Asia Conflict?

As the conflict in West Asia escalates, India's demand for Russian crude oil is projected to rise significantly, potentially reaching 1.5 million barrels per day by 2024-2025. Experts suggest that the ongoing war and supply disruptions could lead to increased imports, driven by India's sensitivity to energy prices and low reserves. If the situation continues, the US may allow more Russian oil into the market to stabilize prices. This article explores the implications of these developments on India's energy landscape and the global oil market.

By Narendra Chaudhary Mar 4, 2026, 18:42 IST

Rising Demand for Russian Oil in India

Moscow: The ongoing conflict in West Asia is likely to boost India's demand for Russian crude oil, potentially reaching 1.5 million barrels per day by 2024-2025, as indicated by a prominent analyst in the global oil sector.

On Tuesday, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak mentioned on state television that Russia anticipates a rise in oil demand from India for refining purposes.

Maxim Malkov, a leading authority on global hydrocarbons, stated on Wednesday that the war in West Asia is expected to drive India's oil imports from Russia higher.

Malkov noted that supply levels could peak in 2024-2025, potentially exceeding 1.5 million barrels per day if Russian oil firms can swiftly increase drilling operations to satisfy the heightened demand.

He explained that India's growing acquisition of Russian oil is becoming more probable for two main reasons: first, India's sensitivity to energy import costs; and second, the physical oil shortage caused by supply disruptions from West Asia, alongside India's relatively low reserves.

Other analysts suggest that if the West Asia conflict continues and supply interruptions through the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the US might consider permitting more Russian oil into India and the global market to prevent significant price hikes.

In such a scenario, Russian oil exports to India could rebound to the 1.5-2 million barrels per day range, with offshore reserves accumulated in recent months potentially being sold, according to Sergei Kaufman, a financial analyst at FINAM group.

Kaufman pointed out that Russian oil shipments to India have decreased to nearly 1 million barrels per day due to sanctions on Russian companies and US pressure on India, after previously maintaining levels between 1.5-2 million barrels per day for an extended period.