What’s Next for Ukraine as Ceasefire Ends? Insights from Kherson

Calm Before the Storm in Kherson

Kherson (Ukraine): Residents in the southeastern region of Kherson braced themselves on Sunday for the conclusion of a temporary ceasefire, marking the most significant pause in hostilities between Kyiv and Moscow since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion over four and a half years ago.

According to the White House, the limited truce, which commenced early Tuesday, was facilitated by US First Lady Melania Trump and is set to conclude Sunday evening. This ceasefire allowed for the evacuation of civilians from the besieged city of Oleshky in a rare collaborative effort that wrapped up on Saturday.

Approximately 2,000 civilians were present in Oleshky when the ceasefire was enacted. They were given the option to evacuate to areas controlled by either Ukraine or Russia or to remain in the city, which had received essential food and medical supplies. The exact number of those who chose to stay was not disclosed for their safety.

At the Ukrainian border on Saturday, families eagerly awaited reunions with their loved ones, while residents of nearby villages lined the highway, waving flags and using flashlights to welcome the humanitarian convoy.

Despite the ceasefire, aerial strikes continued in other regions, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stating that Russia was persistently targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure as winter approaches.

In a social media update, Zelenskyy reported that hundreds of thousands of families were left without electricity overnight as Moscow aimed to exploit Ukraine's limited air defense capabilities.

He noted, "The frequency of the strikes is alarmingly high, and the Russians are attempting to maximize their advantage given the shortage of ballistic missile interceptors."

A Day of Respite Amid Uncertainty

On the final day of the ceasefire, residents in Kherson maintained a sense of calm, even as they anticipated the return of hostilities.

"Don’t be afraid, keep holding on," urged Oleksandr Knyha, the head of the Mykola Kulish Kherson Regional Academic Music and Drama Theatre, as he addressed the audience at a concert.

The theatre holds performances every weekend, and this weekend's shows coincided with the ceasefire. Knyha expressed hope for peace but acknowledged the ongoing conflict, stating, "We’ve been on the front line for four years," emphasizing that the theatre has never canceled a performance.

"Regardless of the circumstances, the show must go on," he affirmed.

Currently, the theatre operates from a basement and is in the process of setting up an additional bomb shelter. Out of the 120 staff members, around 100 remain in Kherson, with none opting to evacuate.

Costume designer Alla Vasylenko, 58, shared her fears about the ceasefire's end, stating, "Nothing will change. Everything will revert to how it was before the ceasefire, because trusting the Russians means not trusting yourself."

She has no intention of leaving, citing her ten dogs as a reason. "They encourage us to evacuate, but you need a destination and the means to get there," she explained.

The cost of travel alone would range from 30,000 to 50,000 hryvnias, a considerable amount for her. "Until we liberate the left bank, we cannot be certain this will end," she remarked, referring to the Russian-occupied area of the region.

For many in Kherson, a city that has endured Russian occupation, this belief is what keeps them rooted.

Knyha, originally from Oleshky on the occupied left bank, used to commute to Kherson for work and still holds onto the hope of returning home. "That’s also what keeps me here," he noted.

On the last day of the ceasefire, the theatre presented a concert themed around a "musical map of Ukraine," featuring songs from Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, to the Carpathian mountains in the southwest. "This is also our role—to unite people and instill hope," Knyha concluded.

Ongoing Drone Attacks from Both Sides

Russian drone strikes continued to target Ukraine's Kyiv region for a second consecutive day, resulting in injuries to a woman and damage to homes, energy infrastructure, and a retail establishment, according to regional authorities.

In its daily report on Sunday, Ukraine's air force indicated that Moscow's forces launched 433 drones overnight, with 371 being intercepted or neutralized.

In a separate incident, over 100 Ukrainian drones were downed over Russia's Nizhny Novgorod region, east of Moscow, as reported by local Governor Gleb Nikitin.

Nikitin mentioned that an industrial facility in Kstovo suffered "significant damage," but did not provide further details. Russian media later reported that the attack led to a fire at the Kstovo oil refinery, showing images of thick black smoke rising into the sky.

Zelenskyy also stated that Kyiv had targeted a factory involved in missile component production and air defense facilities within Russia's southern Rostov region.

"We are justly defending ourselves against Russian aggression and doing everything possible to diminish Russia's capacity to continue its actions," Zelenskyy wrote.