What’s Next for Israel and Lebanon? Netanyahu Initiates Talks Amid Ongoing Tensions

Direct Negotiations Authorized by Netanyahu

In Dubai, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Thursday that he has given the green light for direct discussions with Lebanon, aiming to commence these talks promptly. This decision comes as a fragile ceasefire in the ongoing conflict with Iran faces challenges due to Israel's airstrikes on Beirut.

Netanyahu indicated that the negotiations would center on disarming Hezbollah and fostering peaceful relations between the two nations, expressing support for Lebanon's prime minister's call for the demilitarization of Beirut.

As of now, there has been no immediate response from Lebanese officials.

The ceasefire is further complicated by Iran's ongoing control over the Strait of Hormuz and the uncertainty surrounding the potential for successful peace talks.

Both Iran and the United States, which have claimed victory following the ceasefire announcement, seem to be exerting pressure. Reports from Iranian news agencies suggest that forces have laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping route that Iran has effectively closed. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has warned that US military forces will respond more forcefully if Iran fails to adhere to the agreement.

Disagreements have arisen regarding whether the ceasefire includes a halt to hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. On Wednesday, Israel conducted airstrikes on Beirut, marking the deadliest day in Lebanon since the conflict erupted on February 28.

Concerns persist about the future of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, the resumption of normal shipping traffic through the strait, and Iran's capacity to launch missile attacks and support armed groups in the region.

Despite the tenuous nature of the ceasefire, it appears to have curtailed weeks of missile and drone assaults by Iran on its Gulf Arab neighbors and Israel, with no new attacks reported on Thursday. There were also no indications of US or Israeli strikes targeting Iran.

Israel's Commitment to Target Hezbollah

Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, issued a warning on Thursday, stating that ongoing Israeli assaults on Hezbollah would incur "explicit costs and STRONG responses," as he shared on social media.

Qalibaf has been mentioned as a potential negotiator who could meet with US Vice President JD Vance this weekend in Islamabad, with the White House confirming that Vance will lead the delegation for talks starting Saturday.

Iran has accused Israel of breaching the ceasefire agreement, a claim that both Netanyahu and Trump have denied.

Netanyahu reaffirmed Israel's intention to continue its operations against Hezbollah "with force, precision, and determination."

According to Lebanon's health ministry, at least 203 individuals were killed and over 1,000 injured on Wednesday due to Israeli strikes in central Beirut and other regions, which Israel claims were aimed at Hezbollah, an ally of Tehran in the conflict.

On Thursday, Israel reported the killing of Ali Yusuf Harshi, an aide to Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem. Hezbollah has yet to respond to this claim.

A think tank based in New York cautioned that the ceasefire is precariously close to collapse, suggesting that even if Lebanon is not officially part of the agreement, the scale of Israeli strikes is likely to be perceived as escalatory.

The Soufan Centre noted that Israel's military actions could be interpreted as an attempt to create a rift between Iran and its proxies, as well as a reaction to feeling excluded from the initial ceasefire discussions.

Lebanon's state-run National News Agency reported that an Israeli strike overnight resulted in at least seven fatalities in southern Lebanon, although the Israeli military has not confirmed this incident.

Oil Prices Surge Amid Strait Uncertainty

Iranian semiofficial news agencies released a chart on Thursday indicating that the country's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard had placed sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz during the conflict, potentially as a means to pressure the United States.

The chart, published by ISNA and Tasnim, highlighted a large area labeled "danger zone" in Farsi over the shipping route through the strait, which previously facilitated 20% of global oil and natural gas trade.

Since the onset of the war, only a limited number of vessels have navigated the strait due to attacks, and Iran has threatened to target any ships it associates with the US or Israel. Even after the ceasefire, ships seem to be avoiding the strait.

The chart suggested that vessels are opting for routes closer to Iran's mainland near Larak Island, a path observed during the conflict. The data was recorded from February 28 to April 9, and it remains unclear if the Guard has cleared any mines since then.

Iran's deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, stated that his country would permit ships to pass through the strait in accordance with "international norms and international law" once the US ceases its "aggression" in the Middle East and Israel halts its attacks on Lebanon.

Sultan al-Jaber, head of the UAE's major oil company, noted that approximately 230 oil-laden ships are waiting to transit the strait and must be allowed to do so "without condition."

The de facto closure of the strait has led to soaring oil prices, impacting the costs of gasoline, food, and other essentials well beyond the Middle East. While oil prices dipped on Wednesday following the ceasefire announcement, they rose again as uncertainties surrounding the agreement persisted.

As of Thursday, the spot price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, was around USD 98, reflecting a 35% increase since the conflict began.

Key discussion points for upcoming talks include whether Iran will be permitted to establish a system for charging ships to use the strait, which would disrupt decades of free passage through this international waterway.

Uncertainty Surrounding Iran's Nuclear Program

The status of Iran's missile and nuclear initiatives, which the US and Israel aimed to dismantle through military action, remains ambiguous. The US insists that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons and seeks to eliminate Tehran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which could be weaponized. Iran, on the other hand, maintains that its program is for peaceful purposes.

Trump stated on Wednesday that the US would collaborate with Iran to remove the uranium, which was buried during last year's US and Israeli strikes, although Iran has not confirmed this arrangement. In one version of the ceasefire agreement released by Iran, it claimed it would be allowed to continue its enrichment activities.

The head of Iran's nuclear agency, Mohammad Eslami, emphasized on Thursday that safeguarding Tehran's right to enrich uranium is "essential" for any ceasefire negotiations.

Trump cautioned that US naval forces and troops would remain stationed near Iran "until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with."