West Bengal Assembly Elections: TMC Faces Unprecedented Challenges Ahead of First Phase

The stage is set for the first phase of assembly elections in West Bengal. Under the leadership of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) aims to secure a fourth consecutive term, yet it is confronted with significant challenges. The main opposition party, the BJP, is mounting a strong challenge, spearheaded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, who are leading an aggressive campaign across the state. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP made inroads by winning 18 out of 42 seats, while the TMC secured 22. However, in the 2021 assembly elections, the TMC decisively established its dominance, winning 215 out of 294 seats compared to the BJP's 77. Since then, the TMC has won 20 out of 21 by-elections. In the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the TMC won 29 seats against the BJP's 12. The first phase will cover 152 assembly seats across 16 districts, including Murshidabad, Malda, Purba and Paschim Medinipur, Paschim Bardhaman, and Birbhum, as well as northern districts like Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri, Alipurduar, Cooch Behar, and North and South Dinajpur, along with western districts such as Jhargram, Purulia, and Bankura.

In the state, over 9 million names have been removed from the voter list, leading to a decrease in the total number of voters. Data indicates that voter turnout for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in these 152 seats was around 80%, while it was approximately 83% during the 2021 assembly elections. This suggests that although the total number of voters has decreased, the turnout remained steady or even increased.

Initial figures from the first phase indicate that voter turnout has increased by 7-10% across almost all 16 districts compared to 2021. Notably, 13 districts recorded over 90% turnout. Interestingly, in districts like Murshidabad and Malda, where many names were removed, voting also surpassed 90%. Conversely, in areas like Jhargram and Kalimpong, where fewer names were cut, turnout was still higher than last time.

The TMC has been in power for 15 years, and issues such as dissatisfaction among leaders, employment, corruption, and syndicates may have contributed to the increased voter turnout. Additionally, in Muslim-majority districts and border areas, fears related to SIR and NRC have also been cited as reasons for heightened voter engagement. Despite significant polarization, Hindu voters also turned out enthusiastically.

Both the TMC and BJP have approached this election as a critical battle. While Mamata and Abhishek Banerjee have taken charge, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have been active for months on the BJP's side. Party workers have focused on mobilizing every single voter at the booth level.

A significant number of migrant workers have returned to Bengal solely to cast their votes. They believe that failing to vote this time could result in a permanent loss of their rights.

The unprecedented monitoring by the Election Commission and the deployment of 240,000 central forces have allowed voters to cast their ballots without fear. According to former Chief Election Commissioner S.Y. Quraishi, a turnout exceeding 90% should not be considered unexpected. If the voter list had included the previous 7.5 crore names, the percentage would technically have been around 83%.

For Mamata, another significant hurdle is the BJP's aggressive attempts to polarize the state's voters. A senior BJP leader stated that since their strong performance in 2019, their vote share has remained consistent in 2021 and 2024. They acknowledge that they may not receive Muslim votes, but if they can secure a larger share of Hindu votes, they could reach the magical majority figure of 153 seats. The Muslim community, which constitutes about 30% of the state's population, has largely supported the TMC since 2011, when Mamata ended the 34-year rule of the Left Front. Maintaining their Muslim support base is a challenge for the TMC, as some segments of the community express dissatisfaction over issues like OBC lists and the implementation of Waqf laws. Other opposition parties, including Congress, ISF, AJUP, and AIMIM, may also encroach upon the TMC's Muslim vote bank.