Weather Forecast: Rainfall Patterns and Temperature Trends in India

The India Meteorological Department has released its weather forecast, indicating significant rainfall for southern and central India from January to March, while the northwest regions may see below-normal precipitation. Despite these variations, the rabi crop is expected to remain unaffected due to adequate irrigation. The report also highlights temperature trends, with January likely to be cooler in most areas, and discusses the implications of La Nina conditions on the upcoming monsoon season. Stay informed about how these weather patterns could impact agriculture and daily life across the country.

By Narendra Chaudhary Jan 1, 2026, 19:58 IST

Rainfall Predictions for Southern and Central India

New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that southern and central regions of India are likely to receive substantial rainfall from January through March. In contrast, the northwestern areas, including Punjab and Haryana, are expected to experience below-average precipitation.

Despite the varied rainfall forecast, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the Director General of IMD, reassured that the rabi crop would not be adversely affected, as the northwestern states are well-irrigated and have sufficient water reserves due to a robust monsoon.

The northeast, along with parts of Bihar and Vidarbha, will see an increase in cold days, while Rajasthan is predicted to have fewer chilly days.

Mohapatra noted that January's minimum temperatures are anticipated to be lower than normal across most of India, although certain regions in the northwest, northeast, and peninsular India may experience warmer conditions.

The lack of precipitation in December was attributed to the absence of western disturbances, which typically bring rain and storms to the northwestern and central parts of the country.

He explained that these disturbances are either shifting northward or moving too quickly, a change he linked to climate change.

Interestingly, a reduced snow cover from December to March could indicate favorable rainfall during the upcoming southwest monsoon season.

Currently, La Nina conditions, characterized by cooler sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, are present, with forecasts suggesting a shift to ENSO neutral conditions by March.

These neutral conditions are expected to persist until June or July, which could signal a promising monsoon season ahead.

Mohapatra highlighted that 2025 was recorded as the eighth-warmest year since 1901, with the average land surface air temperature across India being 0.28 degrees Celsius above the long-term average from 1991 to 2020.

The warmest year recorded was 2024, with temperatures 0.65 degrees Celsius higher than the long-term average.

He also mentioned that seasonal mean temperatures during the winter (January-February) and pre-monsoon (March-May) periods were above the long-term averages, with anomalies of 1.17 degrees Celsius and 0.29 degrees Celsius, respectively.

During the southwest monsoon (June-September) and post-monsoon (October-December) seasons, the seasonal mean temperatures were close to the long-term averages, showing anomalies of 0.09 degrees Celsius and -0.1 degrees Celsius, respectively.