US and Iran Gear Up for Crucial Nuclear Talks in Geneva: What’s at Stake?

High-Stakes Nuclear Negotiations in Geneva

Geneva: The United States and Iran are set to engage in critical nuclear discussions this Thursday in Geneva, marking what many see as a final opportunity for diplomatic resolution. The US has mobilized a significant military presence in the Middle East, including aircraft and warships, to exert pressure on Tehran for a favorable agreement.

President Donald Trump is eager to secure a deal that would limit Iran's nuclear ambitions, especially as the nation faces internal unrest following widespread protests last month.

On the other hand, Iran insists on its right to continue uranium enrichment, despite the setbacks to its nuclear program caused by a US-led attack on several of its nuclear facilities last June.

In the event of a US military strike, Iran has warned that all American bases in the Middle East would be considered legitimate targets, endangering the lives of thousands of US service members.

Additionally, Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel following a significant conflict last year, raising fears of a broader regional war.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed concerns about the potential for a devastating conflict, stating, “There would be no victory for anybody – it would be a devastating war.”

Araghchi is expected to meet with Steve Witkoff, a billionaire real estate mogul and Trump ally, who serves as the US special envoy for the Middle East. Their previous discussions last year fell apart after Israel initiated military action against Iran.

These negotiations are being facilitated by Oman, a nation known for its role as a mediator between Iran and Western powers.

Trump's current demands include a complete halt to Iran's uranium enrichment, as well as addressing its ballistic missile program and support for militant groups in the region. However, Iran maintains that discussions should focus solely on nuclear issues.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio remarked that Iran is continuously attempting to rebuild its nuclear capabilities, although he noted that they are not currently enriching uranium.

Iran claims it has not enriched uranium since June but has restricted access for inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the sites targeted by US strikes.

Recent satellite imagery indicates activity at two of these sites, suggesting Iran may be assessing and attempting to recover materials.

The West and the IAEA assert that Iran had a nuclear weapons program until 2003. Prior to the June attack, Iran was enriching uranium to 60% purity, just a technical step away from weapons-grade levels.

US intelligence reports indicate that while Iran has not restarted a weapons program, it is engaging in activities that could enable it to produce a nuclear device if it chooses.

Despite claiming its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, Iranian officials have issued threats regarding the pursuit of nuclear weapons in recent years.

US Vice President JD Vance emphasized that Iran must not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, stating that Trump is committed to resolving the issue through diplomatic means.

However, Vance also noted that the president has alternative options available.

Should the negotiations fail, the timing of any potential military action remains uncertain. It is unclear whether limited strikes would effectively pressure Iran into compliance, or if a more extensive military campaign would be necessary to remove its leadership.

The implications of military action could destabilize the region further, with Iran potentially retaliating against US allies in the Persian Gulf or Israel. Concerns over these developments have led to a rise in oil prices, with Brent crude now hovering around $70 per barrel.

In the previous round of talks, Iran briefly halted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil trade.

Recent satellite images analyzed by the Associated Press showed that US vessels typically stationed in Bahrain were out at sea, likely as a precaution against potential Iranian attacks.

The US Navy's 5th Fleet has referred inquiries to Central Command, which has not provided comments. Prior to Iran's attack on Qatar in June, the fleet had similarly dispersed its ships to mitigate risks.