Upper Assam Floods: A Call for Improved Disaster Warning Systems
Devastating Floods in Upper Assam
Many residents were taken by surprise as rivers overflowed into Upper Assam, making rescue efforts a last resort (Photo: @himantabiswa/X)
In Nazira, Ratul Borah was asleep when floodwaters unexpectedly surged into his home during the night.
Without any alerts on his phone or emergency notifications, he was caught off guard. "In just an hour, my house was submerged in muddy water up to my chest," Borah recounted.
This experience was echoed throughout Upper Assam, where countless individuals were unprepared as rivers flooded their villages, leaving little time for them to react.
The deluge on July 19 has resulted in 89 fatalities, marking it as one of the most catastrophic floods in Assam's recent history.
Warnings Ignored
Widespread destruction and loss of life due to unprecedented flooding in Upper Assam (Photo: @himantabiswa/X)
Unlike sudden disasters such as earthquakes, this flood was not entirely unforeseen.
Prior to the floods, meteorological agencies had predicted heavy rainfall in Nagaland and Upper Assam. However, many families reported that they received no warnings.
"Had we been informed, some could have evacuated or sought refuge on higher ground, potentially reducing the death toll," Borah expressed.
This raises a critical question: if forecasts were available, why were warnings not communicated to the affected populations before the floods struck?
Technology and Communication Failures
Interestingly, just weeks before the floods, India had initiated a trial of a new technology aimed at delivering emergency alerts directly to mobile devices during disasters.
On May 2, numerous mobile phones across the nation received a loud alarm as the government launched the Cell Broadcast Alert System, designed for timely emergency notifications.
In June, residents in Guwahati received another test alert, which bolstered confidence in the new system. Yet, when the floods hit Upper Assam on July 19, many families reported that they did not receive any alerts.
Families affected by the floods navigating through the waters, salvaging what they can (Photo: AT)
Conflicting Accounts
The situation is complicated. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma initially claimed that the Nagaland government had alerted Assam's Chief Secretary within ten minutes of a cloudburst in Mon district, but later stated there was insufficient time to act.
"We had only about an hour and a half, and by then the water had already begun to flow downstream," Sarma mentioned during a visit to Charaideo on July 22.
However, he later retracted the cloudburst assertion.
Officials from Sivasagar district provided a different perspective, stating that there was no adequate warning from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The IMD, however, contests this claim.
An anonymous official from the Regional Meteorological Centre stated that orange alerts were issued for Sivasagar, Jorhat, and Golaghat, along with a yellow alert for Charaideo, and alerts for districts in Nagaland.
They also noted that forecasts were disseminated 72, 48, and 24 hours prior to July 19.
"Our forecasts were accurate and shared daily with ASDMA, the DC office, CMO, and even the PMO. The responsibility for action lies with other departments," the official added.
The focus is shifting from forecasting to the effectiveness of the warning chain. Given Upper Assam's proximity to Nagaland, floodwaters can reach downstream areas rapidly, yet the IMD insists that timely forecasts were available.
The Need for Effective Communication
Villagers in Upper Assam struggling to rebuild their lives after the floods (Photo: AT)
The pressing issue remains why these warnings did not reach the vulnerable communities before the floods arrived.
Deborah Sangma, State Coordinator of the Inter Agency Group, which collaborates with the Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA), is focused on enhancing Assam's disaster communication network.
Sangma noted that the mobile-based Cell Broadcast Alert System had been in pilot testing for nearly three months prior to the floods.
During trials, emergency alerts were sent to mobile phones in Kamrup Metro, and community feedback was collected to refine the system before its statewide implementation.
"The system was only tested in Kamrup Metro and had not been fully rolled out across the state when the disaster struck in Upper Assam," Sangma explained.
This timing was critical. While Guwahati residents received demonstration alerts in May and June, the technology had not yet reached the districts most affected by the floods.
Consequently, one of the state's most promising disaster communication tools was unavailable where it was most needed.
Language and Accessibility Issues
However, technology is just one aspect of the solution. During the pilot phase, the Inter Agency Group made several recommendations to ASDMA to enhance the system. A key suggestion was to ensure that emergency alerts are issued in languages that people can easily understand.
"The digital alert system was initially provided in English, which could pose a barrier for those more comfortable with Assamese or other local languages. We recommended incorporating indigenous languages during the pilot phase," Sangma stated.
For disaster managers, this is not merely a translation issue. An emergency warning that is not immediately comprehensible may fail to prompt the necessary actions to save lives.
Then there is the challenge of the "last mile" — the crucial distance between an alert generated in a control room and a family receiving enough information to evacuate.
Sangma acknowledged that reaching remote and vulnerable communities remains a significant challenge, despite existing disaster preparedness mechanisms. This gap can be fatal.
The Need for a Comprehensive Approach
On paper, Assam has many components of a modern early-warning system, including satellite monitoring, GIS mapping, weather forecasting, district disaster management plans, community preparedness programs, and an emerging digital alert mechanism.
However, the floods in Upper Assam highlighted the disparity between having an early-warning system and ensuring it effectively alerts people in a timely manner.
An ASDMA official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, stated that every district has a District Disaster Management Plan, and the authority's immediate focus is on relief and rehabilitation before reviewing future preparedness strategies.
Nevertheless, ASDMA did not respond to specific inquiries regarding gaps in the early-warning chain, despite being contacted multiple times.
This silence leaves a crucial question unanswered: If accurate forecasts were available, multiple alerts were issued, and disaster management authorities received them, what prevented those warnings from reaching the individuals directly in the path of the floodwaters?
Sangma believes the solution lies in merging scientific forecasting with stronger community involvement and indigenous knowledge of local landscapes and hazards.
A truly effective warning system, she argues, should not only be measured by how quickly a message is generated but by whether it reaches every household in time, in a language that people understand, and with clear instructions on what actions to take next.
Conclusion
The floods in Upper Assam may have been caused by extreme rainfall, but the sheer scale of the tragedy cannot be attributed to rainfall alone. For families like Ratul Borah's, the alarm either came too late or never arrived at all.