The Shifting Power Dynamics in the Middle East: Iran's Influence Under Siege

A New Era of Conflict

Dubai: Following the brutal assault by Hamas on October 7, 2023, Israel has launched a comprehensive military campaign targeting Iran, the militant group's longstanding backer, along with its regional allies and proxies.

This aggressive strategy has led to a swift and systematic decline in Iran's influence throughout the Middle East over the last two and a half years, culminating in the recent devastating strikes against Iran by the United States and Israel.

According to Mehrzad Boroujerdi, an expert in Iranian politics at the University of Missouri, the events of October 7 marked a pivotal moment in the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, providing Israel with a rationale for a decisive military response.

The most significant blow occurred recently when President Donald Trump and Israeli officials initiated a series of attacks on Iran, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and widespread destruction. Although the conflict is still in its early phases, it is part of a broader continuum that has severely diminished Iran's power, along with that of Hezbollah and other allied militias, disrupting the political equilibrium in the region.

Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, described this period as a bloody yet transformative time for the Middle East, emphasizing the uncertainty of its outcome.

The Gaza Conflict's Ripple Effect

The erosion of Iran's power can be traced back to the war in Gaza, where Israeli forces pursued Hamas following the group's deadly attacks that resulted in 1,200 fatalities and 251 hostages on October 7. In retaliation, Israel has reportedly killed over 72,000 Palestinians in Gaza, with nearly half being women and children, according to the Health Ministry under Hamas's governance.

The conflict quickly escalated to involve other factions within the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah, a powerful militant organization, has long been viewed as Iran's primary defense line against Israel. It was estimated to possess around 150,000 rockets and missiles, with its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah, claiming to command 100,000 fighters.

Following the October 7 attacks, Hezbollah began launching rockets into Israel to support Hamas, prompting Israeli airstrikes and escalating into a full-blown war by fall 2024.

Israel inflicted significant damage on Hezbollah, resulting in the deaths of Nasrallah and other key leaders, as well as the destruction of much of the group's arsenal, before a US-brokered ceasefire temporarily halted hostilities last November. Israel continues to conduct airstrikes and occupies parts of southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah's position was further compromised when rebels ousted its key ally, Syrian President Bashar Assad, disrupting a crucial supply route for Iranian arms.

Additionally, Yemen's Houthi rebels, also backed by Iran, have engaged in the conflict by targeting vessels in the Red Sea and launching attacks on Israel, prompting retaliatory fire from US warships and the Israeli military.

A Shift in the Status Quo

As the conflict broadened, Iranian leaders and their proxies failed to recognize that Israel had moved beyond the longstanding status quo, attempting to instigate a fundamental shift, according to Mansour.

The situation escalated for Iran last June when Israel executed a surprise offensive aimed at crippling Tehran's advancing nuclear program while negotiations for a nuclear deal were ongoing with the US. The subsequent 12-day conflict involved bombings targeting Iran's energy sector and Defense Ministry.

During this period, Iran's proxy groups largely remained inactive as their patron faced direct assaults. In the current conflict, they have similarly refrained from significant involvement.

Mansour noted that for Hezbollah and other Iran-aligned factions, survival has become paramount. Over time, these groups have gained autonomy, making decisions based on their own survival rather than solely on Iran's interests.

Since the recent wave of strikes against Iran began on Saturday, Tehran's allies have played a minimal role in the response.

Hezbollah's Response and Future Implications

However, Hezbollah appeared to shift its stance early Monday, despite pressure from Lebanese officials to avoid entering the conflict in defense of Iran due to fears of further devastation in Lebanon.

The group condemned the US-Israeli strikes on Iran and mourned Khamenei's death, hinting at potential involvement. Shortly thereafter, Hezbollah fired missiles across the border, prompting Israeli retaliation with strikes on southern Beirut, marking the first time in over a year that Hezbollah has claimed an attack against Israel.

Hezbollah stated that its actions were in retaliation for Khamenei's assassination and ongoing Israeli aggressions.

The reactions of other proxy groups to Khamenei's death remain uncertain. Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, suggested that Israel's actions since 2023 may cause hesitation among these groups.

Previous conflicts since October 7 have highlighted the existential risks of becoming a target, Lister noted.

In Iraq, a coalition of Iran-backed militias known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed responsibility for several drone strikes targeting US bases in Irbil, the capital of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region. The extent of damage from these attacks is unclear, but the region has experienced widespread power outages following the shutdown of a key gas field due to security concerns.

Two officials from different Iran-aligned militias in Iraq revealed that a meeting occurred two months ago between Iranian officials and allied Iraqi militias to strategize a response in the event of an attack on Iran, including assigning tasks among the Iraqi armed groups.

These officials spoke on the condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to comment publicly. One official indicated that the planned response would focus on US forces and interests in Iraq's northern Kurdish region and neighboring Jordan.

Boroujerdi emphasized that there is a common misconception that Iran directly commands its proxy groups, but the independent decisions made by these groups to avoid conflict reflect the overall weakening of Iran's network.

The balance of power has shifted significantly since the events of October 7, Boroujerdi concluded.