Tensions Rise Over Control of the Strait of Hormuz Amidst U.S.-Iran Dispute

Strait of Hormuz: A Flashpoint of Conflict

The agreement reached by President Trump with Iran was initially seen as a solution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stabilize anxious global markets. However, three weeks later, vessels continue to steer clear of the strait, and incidents of gunfire have occurred on two occasions. The crux of the issue lies in a single paragraph that has been interpreted in starkly different ways by both parties. Tucked away in the agreement is Paragraph 5, which states that Iran will take measures to restore shipping through Hormuz and will coordinate with Oman regarding the future management of the strait. Additionally, Iran has committed to ensuring safe passage for ships and eliminating dangers such as mines. Trump's administration interpreted this as a clear signal that once Iran addressed the mines and assured safety, the strait would be reopened without further delay, marking a significant achievement of the deal.

Conversely, hard-liners in Iran interpreted the same clause to assert that Iran, rather than the U.S. or any other entity, holds the ultimate authority over the waterway. From their perspective, this clause provides Tehran with a permanent leverage point rather than a temporary obligation to facilitate safe passage. This fundamental disagreement has stalled negotiations, with U.S. and Iranian officials now entangled in disputes over control of Hormuz, a critical route for a substantial portion of the world's oil and gas.

Understanding the Discrepancy

Michael Horowitz, a geopolitical analyst based in Israel, explained that such a divergence was almost unavoidable given the wording of the paragraph. He noted that while Washington attempts to persuade Tehran that compliance would yield financial benefits, this argument fails to resonate, as Iran prioritizes security and leverage over monetary gain. This perspective sheds light on why maritime traffic has seen little change. According to Kpler, a ship-tracking company, only 25 vessels crossed through Hormuz on Wednesday, a decrease from 49 the previous day, amid ongoing exchanges of fire between the U.S. and Iran. Prior to the conflict, over 100 ships traversed the strait daily.

A U.S. official involved in the discussions described the two nations as being on "different planets" regarding the interpretation of the paragraph. The official highlighted a significant gap in the text: it does not specify that the U.S. is responsible for ensuring safe passage. Iran has leveraged this omission to justify targeting vessels navigating a route established with U.S. assistance. Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, made the country's stance clear on social media, directly referencing the clause to assert that Hormuz will reopen on Iran's terms, not those of the U.S.

Escalating Violence in the Region

The conflict has spilled over beyond the strait. Jordan reported intercepting missiles launched by Iran on Thursday, following Iranian strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain, which were described as retaliation for U.S. attacks along Iran's coastline. Iran was the initial party to halt traffic through Hormuz, employing drones and missile strikes against shipping at the onset of the war. Since then, it has claimed authority over the waterway and has maintained that any future management arrangements will be negotiated with Oman, its smaller neighbor across the strait. This assertion is essentially embedded in the language of Paragraph 5.

Origins of the Controversial Wording

According to mediators who spoke with sources, the decision to exclude separate discussions about the future of Hormuz stemmed from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the paramilitary group that safeguards Iran's government and exerts practical control over the strait. Mediators indicated that all parties accepted the ambiguous language at the time, believing it was the only way to finalize the agreement. Once the deal was signed, the Revolutionary Guard pressured Iran's civilian leadership to adopt a hardline stance, insisting that Iran should dictate the terms.

The Revolutionary Guard has also advocated for Iran to impose service fees on vessels traversing its route. Documents reviewed indicate that ships are now required to submit paperwork detailing their size and cargo and to obtain permission before crossing.

Iran's Proposed Toll System

This documentation is processed through an agency established by Iran called the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which is tasked with collecting tolls from ships passing through. To navigate the strait, shippers must secure insurance approved by this authority. Currently, the coverage is free, but the documentation leaves the possibility open for future fees. Washington and its Gulf allies reject this arrangement, as the Arab monarchies bordering the Gulf depend on Hormuz for the majority of their oil exports and are advocating for a return to the previous open-access system, free from unilateral control.