Significant Decline in Shipping Traffic Through Strait of Hormuz Amid US-Iran Tensions
Shipping Activity Plummets
On Thursday, commercial shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz saw a drastic decline, with vessel crossings dropping to their lowest point in three weeks. According to Kpler, only eight confirmed crossings were recorded on July 16, marking a significant decrease. Of these, seven vessels opted for the Iranian route, indicating a shift towards higher-risk pathways as operators reassess security measures, crew safety, and insurance liabilities. The traffic was split between low-risk and sanctioned vessels, with no shadow fleet movements reported.
Increased Security Risks Prompt Vessel Turnarounds
Tankers Halt, Turn Back As Security Risks Mount
The resurgence of hostilities between the US and Iran has led to a near-complete halt of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, subsequently pushing global energy prices higher. Tensions have been escalating since February, following a joint offensive by the US and Israel against Iran, which prompted retaliatory missile and drone strikes from Tehran targeting Gulf nations with US military presence.
Despite a memorandum of understanding mediated by Pakistan last month aimed at de-escalating the conflict, recent days have seen renewed hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz, with both nations exchanging attacks. Many vessels have either stopped or turned back following Iranian assaults on ships and the reimplementation of a US blockade on Iran-related shipping.
Data from Kpler indicates that the sanctioned product tanker Miraan, which was transporting fuel oil, and the LPG vessel Norita exited the strait via the Iranian route before halting in the Gulf of Oman, where the US blockade is active. The bunkering tanker Arolia, loaded with Iraqi fuel oil for refueling at sea, also made a U-turn shortly after leaving the strait.
On Wednesday, only 11 vessels managed to cross the strait, a stark contrast to the average of around 125 daily transits prior to the conflict. For the second consecutive day on Thursday, no Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) or liquefied natural gas tankers traversed the strait. However, two VLCCs, each carrying approximately two million barrels of crude, were later tracked outside the strait. The Colombia Prosperity, loaded with Saudi crude, was en route to Okinawa, Japan, while the Costa Rica Prosperity, carrying Iraqi Basra Medium crude, was headed for Turkey.
Additionally, Iraq temporarily halted oil loadings at its Basra terminal following a drone strike on an oil tanker, although operations resumed shortly thereafter. Iran's Revolutionary Guards declared that no oil or gas would be exported through the Strait of Hormuz as long as US attacks persisted.
The latest disruptions coincide with a sixth consecutive night of intensified fighting between the US and Iran. Iranian state media reported that US strikes targeted bridges, a railway station, and Iranshahr Airport, resulting in seven fatalities according to provincial officials in Hormozgan. A spokesperson from the White House stated that US strikes were focused solely on military targets, including logistics infrastructure.
This renewed military escalation and ongoing enforcement actions have heightened uncertainty in global shipping markets, with commercial vessel movements increasingly dictated by security concerns rather than diplomatic resolutions.